Oil & Gas Prices - Jan 22

[dan_s]

Opening Prices:
> WTI is down 163c to $51.50/Bbl, and Brent is down 153c to $54.57/Bbl.
> Natural gas is down 5.0c to $2.441/MMBtu.

Aegis notes
Oil

Iran begins ramping up production, aims to reach pre-sanction levels in one or two months
Iran had produced as much as 3.8 MMBbl/d in 2018. According to Bloomberg, Iran production hovered around 1.9 MMBbl/d through most of 2020
Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh said that the country plans to double its production and increase exports to 2.3 MMBbl/d

Biden is expected to suspend the sale of oil and gas leases on federal lands in the next week
Federal lands and waters accounted for 22% and 12% of U.S. oil and gas production in 2019, respectively (EIA)
According to interviews with oil executives conducted by Reuters, most companies made a dash for permits before the new rules took effect, thereby insulating themselves from the new regulations. Still, smaller independent oil drillers without the same resources may not have had the same luxury

EIA weekly data is due at 9:30 am CST
U.S. Crude Inventories: – 1,739 MBbls (Avg. Bloomberg surveys)
U.S. Gasoline Inventories: + 2,526 MBbls
U.S. Distillate Inventories: + 1,684 MBbls
U.S. Refinery Utilization: – 0.66% change

Natural gas
The EIA is set to report an estimated -175 Bcf/d (Bloomberg average economist estimate) draw in underground storage for the week ended January 15
The data release is at 9:30 CST, a day later than usual due to both the MLK holiday and Inauguration Day federal holiday
If confirmed, a 175 Bcf withdrawal would be 78 Bcf more than the corresponding week in 2020 and 8 Bcf lower than the five-year average
AEGIS notes that strong draws like this continue to show us the gas market is tight when normalizing for weather

President Joe Biden named Democrat Richard Glick to be chairman of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) (NRDC)
Glick, who is already part of FERC, has been an outspoken advocate for a transition to cleaner energy sources and has pushed for reforms to FERC’s gas project certification process, according to S&P Platts
“This is an important moment to make significant progress to a clean energy future,” Glick said on Twitter
Glick will join the five-member commission where Republicans hold a 3-2 majority. But as the new chairman, he will have the power to set the agenda, deciding what orders come up for a vote
AEGIS notes that the Republicans are expected to retain majority until Commissioner Neil Chatterjee’s term is up June 30