EIA - Petroleum Status Report - Jan 27

[dan_s]

WTI spiked quickly to over $53/bbl when this summary came out. Details will be released by IEA in a few hours.

Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the week ending January 22, 2021

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 14.7 million barrels per day during the week ending January 22, 2021 which was 39,000 barrels per day less than the previous week’s average.
Key Stat: Refineries operated at 81.7% of their operable capacity last week. < This should increase to over 85% by the end of Q1.
Gasoline production decreased last week, averaging 8.7 million barrels per day.
Distillate fuel production decreased last week, averaging 4.5 million barrels per day.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 5.1 million barrels per day last week, decreased by 1.0 million barrels per day from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged
about 5.7 million barrels per day, 13.9% less than the same four-week period last year. < Saudi Arabia not sending anymore crude oil to the U.S. these days.
Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 465,000 barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 474,000 barrels per day. < What our Federal Government is doing today will cause the U.S. to be VERY DEPENDENT on imports in "Post-Pandemic World".

> U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 9.9 million barrels from the previous week. At 476.7 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 5% above the five year average for this time of year. < Now back within the 5-year range. Keep in mind that it is "normal" for crude oil inventories to build in February and March as refiners build up "raw material" for the manufacture of a lot more transportation fuels in the 2nd quarter.
> Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 2.5 million barrels last week and are about 3% below the five year average for this time of year. Finished gasoline and blending components inventories both increased last week.
> Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 0.8 million barrels last week and are about 8% above the five year average for this time of year.
> Propane/propylene inventories decreased by 2.2 million barrels last week and are about 9% below the five year average for this time of year. < This is extremely bullish news for Antero Resources (AR) and all of our "gassers" that produce a lot of NGLS. Comstock Resources (CRK) and Goodrich Petroleum (GDP) are Haynesville Shale companies that have minimal NGL production. EOG and XEC also produce a lot of NGLs..
> Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 11.7 million barrels last week.

Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 19.0 million barrels a day, down by 4.4% from the same period last year.
Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 7.7 million barrels a day, down by 9.5% from the same period last year.
Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 3.7 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, down by 1.2% from the same period last year.
Jet fuel product supplied was down 28.2% compared with the same four-week period last year. < Jet fuel will be the last refined product to bounce back. It can be reblended to make more diesel and home heating oil.

[dan_s]

Aegis comments
EIA reported a draw of -9910 MBbls in U.S. crude-oil inventories for the week ending 1/22/2021. This was much larger than the average estimate of a 373 MBbl build as reported by Bloomberg.
Prices were up five minutes following the announcement, to $52.79, from $52.51 just before 9:30am.
Inventories for the US are now at a surplus of 48.547 MBbls to last year and a surplus of 29.34 MBbls to the five-year average. < Draws should continue and the average goes up in Feb and Mar.