Antero Resources (AR) Q4 Results - Feb 18

[dan_s]

Antero Resources (AR) is one of the six "gassers" in our three model portfolios. It is a pure play on the Marcellus/Utica that is now selling some gas into the Gulf Coast market at very high prices. It is also the largest producer of NGLs in the U.S. and NGL are way up and going higher.
I have updated my forecast/valuation model and it will be posted to the EPG website late today.

AR is currently trading for $9.00.
I am raising my valuation by $2.50 to $12.00, but I think it has a lot more upside for us. Based on the Company's audited balance sheet as of 12/31/2020 the book value per share is over $19.00 and I really cannot see why this stock trades below book value.

Other analysts that have updated their AR price target this week.
> Subash Chandra at Northland Securities rates it a BUY with a price target of $15.00 < He is one of the few analysts that is using updated natural gas and NGL prices.
> Brian Velie at Capital One Financial rates it a BUY with a price target of $11.00

For those of you that own Antero Midstream (AM) for their very high dividend yield, the new drilling partnership that AR announced is very bullish for the midstream company.

PS: First Call's price target is $7.64 for AR. First Call's price targets are worthless during periods of rapidly rising or falling commodity prices. For AR 12 of the price targets in Reuters data base are older than the date of their q4 results and a few are older than the date of their Q3 results.