Oil & Gas Prices - Apr

[dan_s]

Opening Prices:
> WTI is up 40c to $59.73/Bbl, and Brent is up 44c to $63.18/Bbl.
> Natural gas is up 2.0c to $2.476/MMBtu.

Closing Prices:
> WTI prompt month (MAY 21) was up $0.44 on the day, to settle at $59.77/Bbl.
> Also, NG prompt month (MAY 21) was up $0.064 on the day, to settle at $2.520/MMBtu.

AEGIS Notes
Oil

The U.S. slashed its oil production forecast through next year, according to the EIA’s latest STEO report
U.S. output will reach 11.04 MMBbl/d in 2021, in contrasts with its previous estimate of 11.15 MMBbl/d – EIA
The EIA also lowered its forecast for 2022 production by 100 MBbl/d to 11.9 MMBbl/d

An Iranian vessel was struck off the coast of the Red Sea as nuclear talks begin in Vienna
According to the New York Times, Israel was responsible. Israel has opposed countries rejoining the accord without harsh sanctions unless the country adheres to its uranium enrichment, regional proxy forces restrictions
Significant progress was made between the U.S. and Iran to get both countries back into compliance with the nuclear deal, according to Bloomberg

EIA weekly data is due at 9:30 am CST
U.S. Crude Inventories: – 1,638 MBbls (Avg. Bloomberg surveys)
U.S. Gasoline Inventories: – 747 MBbls
U.S. Distillate Inventories: + 645 MBbls
U.S. Refinery Utilization: + 0.85% change

Natural Gas

The EIA expects Henry Hub spot prices will average $2.73/MMBtu in the second quarter of 2021 and $3.04/MMBtu for all of 2021, according to their April Short-Term Energy Outlook
The agency expects that U.S. consumption of natural gas will average 82.9 Bcf/d in 2021, down 0.4% from 2020 and 82.1 Bcf/d in 2022
EIA estimates that natural gas inventories ended March 2021 at nearly 1.8 Tcf, which is 2% lower than the five-year (2016–20) average. The agency also expects the 2021 injection season will end with 3.7 Tcf in storage at the end of October, which is equal to the five-year average

U.S. production of dry natural gas will average 91.4 Bcf/d in 2021, nearly the same as the 2020 average. The report estimates production will fall to a low point of 90.8 Bcf/d in May 2021 before steadily increasing through most of the remainder of 2021, reaching a high of 92.4 Bcf/d in November 2021 due to higher gas and crude prices

The EIA is expected to report a 27 Bcf injection for the week ending April 2 according to Platts
Analyst responses to the survey ranged from a 15-33 Bcf build
A 27 Bcf injection would be less than the 30 Bcf build reported in the same week last year but more than the five-year average 5 addition of 8 Bcf
An injection within the expected range would increase stocks to 1.791 Tcf. The deficit to the five-year average would decrease to 17 Bcf, and the deficit to 2020 would increase to 228 Bcf