EIA Weekly Petroleum Report - April 14

[dan_s]

Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the week ending April 9, 2021

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 15.1 million barrels per day during the week ending April 9, 2021 which was 7,000 barrels per day more than the previous week’s average.
Refineries operated at 85.0% of their operable capacity last week. < High for the year. When it goes over 90%, WTI will go a lot higher.
Gasoline production increased last week, averaging 9.6 million barrels per day.
Distillate fuel production increased last week, averaging 4.6 million barrels per day.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 5.9 million barrels per day last week, down by 411,000 barrels per day from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 6.0 million barrels per day, 0.7% more than the same four-week period last year.
Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 839,000 barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 261,000 barrels per day.

> U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 5.9 million barrels from the previous week. At 492.4 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 1% above the five year average for this time of year.
> Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 0.3 million barrels last week and are about 2% below the five year average for this time of year. Finished gasoline inventories increased while blending components inventories decreased last week.
> Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 2.1 million barrels last week and are about 4% above the five year average for this time of year.
> Propane/propylene inventories increased by 1.0 million barrels last week and are about 16% below the five year average for this time of year. < Strong demand for propane in Q1 has pushed NGL prices way above where they were pre-pandemic.
>> Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 9.1 million barrels last week.

Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 19.6 million barrels a day, up by 20.0% from the same period last year.
Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 8.8 million barrels a day, up by 37.4% from the same period last year.
Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 3.9 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, up by 8.6% from the same period last year.
Jet fuel product supplied was up 24.8% compared with the same four-week period last year. < Demand for jet fuel is the only refined product that has not bounced all the way back to pre-pandemic levels.
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MY TAKE: Obviously this is a very bullish report as crude oil and total inventories fell more than expected. The Q1 rally that pushed WTI up to $67/bbl (March 7) was primarily driven by "Covid-19 Vaccine Optimism" and the discipline of OPEC+. The recent pullback has been the result of "Covid-19 Fear Mongering" and fear that Iranian oil will quickly come back on the market. My opinion is that vaccine or no vaccine this pandemic will end because life must go on on Planet Earth. BTW the Earth's human population grows by ~220,000 per day and MORE PEOPLE = MORE DEMAND FOR OIL BASED PRODUCTS. Demand for oil is rapidly bouncing back and we will need all the oil OPEC+ can produce by the end of next year. Non-OPEC+ oil supply has declined by ~4 million BOPD and will not bounce back quickly.
Confirm global population growth here: https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/