Is this oil cycle different?

[dan_s]

I think it is different this time (at lease for a few years) because I follow a lot of upstream companies and none of them are going to rapidly increase their 2021 D&C budgets no matter how high oil and gas prices go. Modest production is likely, but a return to 13 million BOPD may never happen. Upstream companies' goals have shifted from increasing proven reserves at all cost to generating free cash flow to pay down debt, increase dividends and fund stock buybacks.

OilPrice.com: U.S. shale is finally giving shareholders a payday
Unlike in the previous downturn in 2015-2016, U.S. shale producers are exiting the 2020 oil price and demand collapse with their promises intact to rein in production growth and return more cash to increasingly demanding shareholders. The first-quarter earnings and conference calls highlighted a previously unheard-of restraint from public shale firms. Listed producers generated record cash flows, but they are not reinvesting most of those back to drilling.
Read more: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/U ... ayday.html

S&P Global: Economics continue to improve in US shale basins but operators hold steady
Despite ever-improving returns across nearly all US shale fields, publicly traded companies continue to demonstrate restraint in drilling and completion activity with production forecasts showing dips next month in every major basin but the Haynesville and Permian. The most recent data by S&P Global Platts Analytics showed growing internal rates of returns, or IRRs, in both oil and gas-focused plays.