Oil & Gas Prices - July 12

[dan_s]

Opening Prices
> WTI is down 86c to $73.70/Bbl, and Brent is down 86c to $74.69/Bbl.
> Natural gas is up 1.0c to $3.684/MMBtu.

AEGIS Notes
Oiljo

To see more AEGIS updates on oil and gas markets’ TLC components, join me on the AEGIS webinar on Wedensday.

Oil futures are lower this morning, erasing most of the gains obtained on Friday’s 2% rally
Both an uncertain OPEC+ alliance and a highly infectious Delta variant coronavirus weigh on the minds of traders

The U.S. oil rig count stayed flat in major basins last week (Baker Hughes)
The Permian Basin remained at 237 active rigs, up 112 from a year ago
Permian rigs are still below the 400 active rigs running in March 2020, before the steep drop off due to Covid-19
All regions gained two last week to stand at 378 total land oil rigs

Money managers decreased their bullish Brent and WTI oil bets for the reporting period ending July 6 by 43,866 combined net-long positions to 655,601 (CFTC, ICE, Bloomberg)
The net-long position was the least bullish in five weeks
AEGIS notes that spec interest can exacerbate moves up or down in the crude market on major news

Natural Gas

Forecasts shifted cooler over the weekend as sweltering temperatures in U.S. West are expected to dissipate
According to the CWG, the U.S. lost 3 CDD’s over the weekend
Most of the lost cooling demand is concentrated in the 1-10 day range
The U.S. South is also expected to see cooler temperatures over the next 15 days

Feedgas flows to U.S. LNG facilities have fallen from last week’s level, thanks to a 300 MMcf/d reduction in flows to Cameron LNG
Flows to Cameron LNG currently stand near 1.22 Bcf/d, only 50 MMcf/d removed from their 30-day low
Total flows to LNG facilities are at around 10.23 Bcf/d, nearly 900 MMcf/d below its recent high of 11.16 Bcf/d on July 8

According to Bloomberg, global gas arbs suggest feed gas flows should be running near capacity as both the JKM and TTF prices remain near multi-year highs of $13, and $12.75/MMBtu
The TTF-HH spread is near its record high, even above where it was before the U.S. exported LNG

Baker Hughes gas rig count increased by two, to bring the total gas rig count to 101
The major gas basins, Marcellus and Haynesville, remained unchanged, while the Utica basin gained one rig
The total number of gas-directed drilling rigs in the Haynesville basin now sits at 49, up from 32 rigs in March 2020

[dan_s]

Closing Prices:
> WTI prompt month (AUG 21) was down $0.46 on the day, to settle at $74.10/Bbl.
> NG prompt month (AUG 21) was up $0.075 on the day, to settle at $3.749/MMBtu.