Working gas in storage was 3,369 Bcf as of Friday, October 8, 2021, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 81 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 501 Bcf less than last year at this time and 174 Bcf below the five-year average of 3,543 Bcf.
At 3,369 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.
There are now just five weeks remaining in the refill season.
For this period the 5-year average increases in storage are 69, 63, 33, 29 and -2 for a total of 192 Bcf
My SWAG is that the 2021-2022 heating season will begin with 3,580 Bcf in storage on Friday, November 12. That will be 155 Bcf below the five year average.
Because of the BIG INCREASE in the exports of US natural gas and the coal shortage (so gas-to-coal fuel switching for power generation is not what it used to be), natural gas prices will remain over $5.00/MMBtu thru March, 2022 and may spike to over $10.00 in Q4 if we have a cold start to winter.
At the time of this post the NOV21 HH gas futures contract is trading for $5.82
EIA - Natural Gas Storage Report - Oct 14
EIA - Natural Gas Storage Report - Oct 14
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group