La Nina = Colder than normal winter for N. Hemisphere

[dan_s]

This winter heating season will begin with more than 500 Bcf less natural gas in storage than the US had last year and we got to April with storage below the 5-year average. If we get the winter described below we may see natural gas shortages in the Northeast quarter of the U.S. Anyone using propane to heat their home should make plans now to deal with running out of propane by mid-winter. Propane is already being rationed.

‘DOUBLE-DIP’ LA NIÑA = BRUTAL NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WINTER, + RECORD-BREAKING HAIL POUNDS AUSTRALIA
OCTOBER 20, 2021 CAP ALLON

‘DOUBLE-DIP’ LA NIÑA = BRUTAL NH WINTER
La Niña has returned to the Pacific Ocean, and threatens a brutally cold and snowy northern hemisphere winter. This event is referred to a ‘double-dip’ La Niña because similar conditions formed last year, too.

It has an 87 percent chance of lingering until February 2022, said NOAA in a statement.

Very briefly, La Niña is characterized by unusually cold ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific (region 3.4). The climate pattern tends to generate colder, snowier winters across much of North America, Europe and Asia, and a wetter, stormier summer in Australia.

Concentrating on the United States, the northwest is set to suffer an anomalously cold winter with high snowfall totals to boot.

Bob Larson, expert senior meteorologist for Accuweather, said: “The snowfall forecast for New York City is, on average, 29.8 inches, but our prediction is up to 32 inches” — in my mind, these are conservative estimates.

Last winter’s La Niña unleashed record-cold temperatures in February, 2021 – the coldest in record history for many locales. During that month, the average temperature for the contiguous U.S. was just 30.6F–3.2F below the multidecadal average, while unprecedented snow totals battered many states.

The first signs of La Niña are expected to appear as early as next week, continued Larson.

“There is already evidence of this pattern and in a week to 10 days, we will see a storm slamming into the West Coast that will stay in northern California,” he said. “This could be a preview of what we could see this winter due to la Niña.”

Although La Niña will technically be present as of next week, it isn’t predicted to be at its strongest until after January, as occurred last winter. Keep an eye on that monthly UAH temperature chart (linked in the sidebar) moving into the New Year. We should see a plunge back down below the 1990-2020 average by the end of Q1–to levels lower than what we saw in early 2021