EIA - Natural Gas Storage Report - Oct 21

[dan_s]

Working gas in storage was 3,461 Bcf as of Friday, October 15, 2021, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 92 Bcf from the previous week.
Over the last 13 weeks (Qtr of a year) the net increases have only been 12 Bcf over the 5-year average for the 13 weeks.
Stocks were 458 Bcf less than last year at this time and 151 Bcf below the five-year average of 3,612 Bcf.
At 3,461 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.

There are only four weeks left in the refill season. My guess is that 150 Bcf will be added to storage before draws begin the week ending November 19. That will put storage at 3,611 Bcf at the beginning of the winter heating season.

A few things to keep in mind:
> Larger than average builds the last three weeks are because utilities are going into the physical market and buying gas to put in storage. This additional demand during September and October when we have plenty of gas is why gas prices moved over $5.00.
> LNG exports remain at capacity and capacity will be going up ~2 Bcfpd when two more export facilities come online.
> The U.S. consumes a lot more gas during the winter than it did 5 years ago.
> La Nina in the Pacific = Colder than normal winter for upper half of the U.S.