EIA Weekly Petroleum Report - Dec 15

[dan_s]

Focus on how low refined product inventories are. Refiners have a lot of work to do because this is one of the most important supply chains in the world. Inventories of fuels used for space heating are dangerously low for this time of year. There is a global shortage of space heating fuels.

Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the week ending December 10, 2021

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 15.7 million barrels per day during the week ending December 10, 2021 which was 115,000 barrels per day less than the previous week’s average.
Refineries operated at 89.8% of their operable capacity last week.
Gasoline production increased last week, averaging 10.0 million barrels per day.
Distillate fuel production decreased last week, averaging 4.8 million barrels per day.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.5 million barrels per day last week, down by 28,000 barrels per day from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 6.5 million barrels per day, 15.4% more than the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 499,000 barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 450,000 barrels per day.

> U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 4.6 million barrels from the previous week. At 428.3 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 7% below the five year average for this time of year.
> Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 0.7 million barrels last week and are about 6% below the five year average for this time of year. Finished gasoline inventories remained unchanged while blending components inventories decreased last week.
> Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 2.9 million barrels last week and are about 9% below the five year average for this time of year.
> Propane/propylene inventories decreased by 2.4 million barrels last week and are about 10% below the five year average for this time of year.
>> Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 15.9 million barrels last week.

Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 21.3 million barrels a day, up by 12.6% from the same period last year.
Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 9.1 million barrels a day, up by 15.4% from the same period last year.
Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 4.3 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, up by 11.2% from the same period last year.
Jet fuel product supplied was up 27.3% compared with the same four week period last year.

[Fraser921]

..and crude is down and our names are getting hammered.

Seems like soft market and program trading killing us as fundamentals are still fine.

[dan_s]

It took awhile for today's EIA report to sink in.
> IEA's report that the global oil market is now over-supplied is total BS. Remember, their bosses want lower oil prices.
> OECD and global inventories are all below average for this time of year and some refined product inventories are dangerously low.
> There is a global shortage of fuel used for space heating.
> FEAR of Omicron will have little if any impact on demand.

We are 6-8 months away from a world with no spare oil production capacity. Plus, all of the Sweet 16 will do well even if oil stays in the $65 to $70 range, which IMO won't last long.