Jan Weather is VERY BULLISH for ngas demand - Jan 3

[dan_s]

Watch the Saturday Summary here: https://www.weatherbell.com/premium/

It was actually recorded Sunday afternoon.

MJO is moving into Phase 8, which brings lots of snow and cold to the NE U.S. This will increase demand for natural gas, heating oil and propane. Lots of demand for heating oil in Europe because of sky high natural gas and electricity prices. Propane rationing has been going on since November.

This week's EIA natural gas storage report for the week ending December 31st will show a draw close to the 5-year average of 101 Bcf. Then we should see three weeks in a row of draws that are over 200 Bcf and much higher than the 5-year averages (174, 172, 198). By the end of January ngas in US storage should be at least 100 Bcf below the 5-year average.

Severe cold and heavy snow in Appalachia (Marcellus & Utica Shale Play) may also cause a lot of well freeze offs. Heavy snow may make it difficult for crews to restore production. Bakken production also being impacted by weather.

Crude oil prices are set by global supply/demand. Natural gas and NGL prices are set by regional supply/demand. Increasing exports of US natural gas and NGLs does increase global demand's impact on US ngas prices each year.