Looks like 100 very shortly
Pxd last week said they will be buying back shares starting today
Crude up 5 per cent
Re: Crude up 5 per cent
Amazing to see every energy stock in the red.Crude fee back but still is up
Q1 profits and cash flows will be massive
Q1 profits and cash flows will be massive
Re: Crude up 5 per cent
There is a lot of "noise" that is a dark cloud over the market. What's happening is what I call "Market Risk". Sometimes it doesn't matter how well individual companies are doing if there is FEAR and the FED keeping investors on the sidelines. FEAR is usually a short-term problem. In the long-run, increasing operating cash flow will push up share prices.
Trading Economics:
"WTI crude futures were changing hands around $93 per barrel on Tuesday morning, having surged more than 4% to an over seven-year high of almost $96 earlier this session on worries about possible supply disruptions amid escalating tensions in Europe. In the latest developments, President Vladimir Putin ordered troops into two Moscow-backed separatist regions of eastern Ukraine after announcing that he would recognize their independence, a move that already triggered sanctions from Western nations. Meanwhile, investors continued to monitor efforts to revive the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement. Analysts suggested that a potential deal could add more than 1 million barrels a day of Iranian crude to the market." < Even if a deal is agreed to by the Supreme Leader, we won't see more oil coming out of Iran until Q3. By then, global oil demand will be more than 2 million bpd higher and we will need every drop.
Note from Raymond James this morning:
"Oil demand recovery continues, even with higher prices. As the omicron variant wave seems to be receding into the background, there’s still
uncertainty about the pandemic’s future trajectory. But, here’s what we do know: Each successive hit to demand from a new variant has been
meaningfully less than the prior impact, and omicron has confirmed that trend. The original strain and global lockdown hit demand by nearly
20 million bpd in 2Q20, while Alpha/Beta in late 2020 and early 2021 shaved off an estimated 2 million bpd of demand, and finally with delta (the
previously most-transmissible strain), the impact as we see it was less than 0.5 million bpd. We’re still measuring omicron’s overall impact, but at
worst it appears to have merely offset weather-related gains (e.g., global nat gas crisis → liquids switching). Higher prices will be the next concern
for the demand trajectory, especially if our price forecast is correct. However, despite the highest prices in nearly 8 years, there is zero evidence to
suggest that demand destruction is occurring. In fact, real-time data from the U.S. suggests almost the opposite — that demand is hitting record
levels. Also, keep in mind that as the world returns to ‘normal,’ the ability to recoup the current ~2.5 million bpd of ‘lost’ jet fuel demand only
grows. Price is a concern — and will likely be the governor on the overall oil market over time as it should be — but we think demand destruction
happens at prices comfortably above current levels."
Also, demand for crude oil goes up every summer (starting mid-Q2) because it takes more black oil to produce summer blend gasoline. OECD Petroleum Inventories keep fall and that cannot continue.
Raymond James: "OPEC+ excess capacity drops to frighteningly low levels by 2023. Another way to visualize the above data is in terms of remaining excess or spare global capacity. As we highlight in the adjacent chart, our forecast for spare capacity gets to below 2 million bpd — a shockingly low figure that, if true, would send the oil risk premium much higher regardless of the inventory trajectory. In essence, there is no “buffer” in the system to protect against any shocks." < The last time global spare capacity dipped below 2 million bpd was in 2008 and WTI spiked to $147/bbl. Adjusted for inflation, that means $200/bbl is possible if there are even minor production problems.
Trading Economics:
"WTI crude futures were changing hands around $93 per barrel on Tuesday morning, having surged more than 4% to an over seven-year high of almost $96 earlier this session on worries about possible supply disruptions amid escalating tensions in Europe. In the latest developments, President Vladimir Putin ordered troops into two Moscow-backed separatist regions of eastern Ukraine after announcing that he would recognize their independence, a move that already triggered sanctions from Western nations. Meanwhile, investors continued to monitor efforts to revive the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement. Analysts suggested that a potential deal could add more than 1 million barrels a day of Iranian crude to the market." < Even if a deal is agreed to by the Supreme Leader, we won't see more oil coming out of Iran until Q3. By then, global oil demand will be more than 2 million bpd higher and we will need every drop.
Note from Raymond James this morning:
"Oil demand recovery continues, even with higher prices. As the omicron variant wave seems to be receding into the background, there’s still
uncertainty about the pandemic’s future trajectory. But, here’s what we do know: Each successive hit to demand from a new variant has been
meaningfully less than the prior impact, and omicron has confirmed that trend. The original strain and global lockdown hit demand by nearly
20 million bpd in 2Q20, while Alpha/Beta in late 2020 and early 2021 shaved off an estimated 2 million bpd of demand, and finally with delta (the
previously most-transmissible strain), the impact as we see it was less than 0.5 million bpd. We’re still measuring omicron’s overall impact, but at
worst it appears to have merely offset weather-related gains (e.g., global nat gas crisis → liquids switching). Higher prices will be the next concern
for the demand trajectory, especially if our price forecast is correct. However, despite the highest prices in nearly 8 years, there is zero evidence to
suggest that demand destruction is occurring. In fact, real-time data from the U.S. suggests almost the opposite — that demand is hitting record
levels. Also, keep in mind that as the world returns to ‘normal,’ the ability to recoup the current ~2.5 million bpd of ‘lost’ jet fuel demand only
grows. Price is a concern — and will likely be the governor on the overall oil market over time as it should be — but we think demand destruction
happens at prices comfortably above current levels."
Also, demand for crude oil goes up every summer (starting mid-Q2) because it takes more black oil to produce summer blend gasoline. OECD Petroleum Inventories keep fall and that cannot continue.
Raymond James: "OPEC+ excess capacity drops to frighteningly low levels by 2023. Another way to visualize the above data is in terms of remaining excess or spare global capacity. As we highlight in the adjacent chart, our forecast for spare capacity gets to below 2 million bpd — a shockingly low figure that, if true, would send the oil risk premium much higher regardless of the inventory trajectory. In essence, there is no “buffer” in the system to protect against any shocks." < The last time global spare capacity dipped below 2 million bpd was in 2008 and WTI spiked to $147/bbl. Adjusted for inflation, that means $200/bbl is possible if there are even minor production problems.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group