SPR rides to the rescue?

[KGardiner]

Biden releases 180 million barrels.
IEA releases 120 million barrels!

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News ... lease.html

First, let's fix the headline math here:
* Biden has been releasing about 262 thousand barrels per day for the past 6 months.
* Raising that to 1 million per day is an additional 738 thousand per day starting in May.
* IEA releasing 120 million includes Biden's, so this is just 60 million new barrels.
* If we assume the IEA releases this over the same 6 months as the US, this is 333 thousand per day.

All totaled US + IEA, this is 1.071 million new barrels per day over the next 6 months.
The current release rate of 0.262 million barrels per day was already priced into the market.

Also priced into the market is the approximately 300 thousand barrels per day that OPEC is assumed to add each month. For over a year now we've known demand will likely exceed forecast supply growth due to severe underinvestment. This extra oil being dumped on the market seems to have had little impact on Dec 22 Crude Futures, likely because the extra supply will evaporate by then.

My guess is that this latest release announcement will be forgotten in a week or two when summer driving demand starts drawing down weekly inventory.

Kevin

[dan_s]

Correct.
Each year demand for transportation fuels increases by 1.5 to 2.5 million bpd.