14 of the 16 companies have now released Q1 results and I have increased my valuations for all 14 of them. Actual Q1 results confirm my valuation model assumptions and most of the companies have raised their production guidance. As a group, the Sweet 16 is still trading at just 3.05 X operating cash flow per share. A group of this quality should be trading for AT LEAST 6X operating CFPS. Check out columns R and S on the Sweet 16 spreadsheet Tab 1.
For the week ending May 6, the Sweet 16 gained 9.8% and is now up 54.04% YTD. The S&P 500 Index lost 0.18% during the week and is now down 13.49% YTD. The overall market remains under pressure from "FEAR of the Fed" and all the noise in the world these days.
The Energy Sector is the top preforming sector in the overall market this year. This world is now in a full blown "Energy Crisis" and there is no short-term solution to rebuild our depleted inventories of oil, gas, NGLs and coal. Shortages of coal and coal's high price (up 295% in the last 12-months) are one of the fundamental reasons natural gas has spiked to over $8.00/MMBtu. Coal prices set the floor for natural gas prices.
My biggest concern is the shortage of diesel. If we are forced to ration diesel it would be very bad for the economy and lead to shortages of stuff like food.
Our five gassers lead the pack this year.
> Antero Resources (AR) is up 111.37% YTD and still trades at a 62.2% discount to my valuation of $60.00
> Comstock Resources (CRK) is up 106.95% YTD and still trades at a 85.2% discount to my valuation of $31.00
> EQT Corp. (EQT) is up 88.22% YTD
> Coterra Energy (CTRA) is up 71.32% YTD
> Range Resources (RRC) is up 71.28% YTD
Magnolia Oil & Gas (MGY) and Ovintiv (OVV) are expected to announce Q1 results on Monday, May 9. I will be updating my valuation for these two on May 10.
Callon Petroleum (CPE) up 5.9% YTD and Laredo Petroleum (LPI) up 15.32% YTD have pulled back, but I don't see anything that justifies it. Both of them are trading at less than half of my current valuations. I am going to highlight Callon in my podcast later today.
ESTE and NOG are also trading at less than half of my updated valuations.
We will be sending out an updated profile on Earthstone Energy (ESTE) late today. I am extremely bullish on ESTE because they have closed two acquisitions in January and April that more than doubles the company's daily production from 30,244 Boepd in Q4 2021, to 35,509 Boepd in Q1 2022 and guidance of 71,500 Boepd for Q2 2022. I expect several Wall Street analysts to increase their price targets for ESTE next week. It closed at $15.18 on May 6, which compares to my updated valuation of $36.00.
Earthstone is an "Aggressive Growth" company, which is out of favor with the Wall Street Gang this year, but the Company's going to report some outstanding results in the coming quarters that will draw a lot more "love". I prefer to buy stocks BEFORE the Wall Street Gang figures them out.
The next edition of The View from Houston will be published the week of May 16th. I want to get may valuations for all of the Sweet 16 and all of the stocks in Small-Cap Growth Portfolio updated first. We will be publishing updated profiles for all of the Sweet 16 (AR, CRK, RRC and ESTE are already updated) over the next two weeks.
We will be having a live webinar on Thursday, May 12. I think you will like our host company, PHX Minerals (NYSE: PHX). To attend the live webinar set for May 12 at 10AM CT, you must register on our website or send an email to Sabrine at energyprospectus@gmail.com
Sweet 16 Update - May 7
Sweet 16 Update - May 7
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Sweet 16 Update - May 7
Just watched the video.Nice job.
Do you think there will be any M & A with the Sweet 16, some big whale buying out a smaller one?
Your comments on CPE made me think someone should snap them up
Do you think there will be any M & A with the Sweet 16, some big whale buying out a smaller one?
Your comments on CPE made me think someone should snap them up
Re: Sweet 16 Update - May 7
I agree that Callon is a "Screaming Takeover" target at the current price, but it would be a multi-$billion deal so few others can afford it. It is a good fit for CLR.
The large-caps are under a lot of pressure to live within budgets and pay higher dividends.
The large-caps are under a lot of pressure to live within budgets and pay higher dividends.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group