In EIA's most recent 941 Report (our first look at ACTUAL PRODUCTION), they report that U.S. oil production declined from 11,688,000 bpd in March to 11,628,000 bpd in April. Had oil traders known this, my bet is that oil prices would have gone much higher in April.
Since the Covid-19 Pandemic began in early 2020, U.S. oil production peaked in November, 2021 at 11,769,000 bpd because upstream companies focused on completing a lot of good DUC wells, so they could get them into their year-end reserve reports.
Well completions and production normally declines during each winter, but production normally ramps up in Q2.
For the weeks ending in April (4/8, 4/15, 4/22 and 4/29) in EIA's weekly estimates they reported U.S. oil production of 11,800,000 to 11,900,000 bpd.
This is just a reminder that EIA's weekly estimates are pure Wild Ass Guesses. Despite their multi-$Billion annual budget, I think I could come up with better WAGs each week.
U.S. Oil Production declined from Mar22 to Apr22
U.S. Oil Production declined from Mar22 to Apr22
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group