Q2 AVERAGE SETTLEMENT PRICES

[Fraser921]

Q2 AVERAGE SETTLEMENT PRICES

APRIL $5.336
MAY $7.267
JUNE $8.908

= Q2 average of $ 7.17

For modelling you subtract basis and add something for quality.

In all earnings presentation , they give guidance that says " plan on plus 10 c over Nymex or -20 cents less than Nymex as the case may be"

[uberCOAT]

Dan,

See attached. I have slightly different prices per the EIA website. I am using the correct data source?

April $6.59
May $8.14
June $7.70

Thanks

[Fraser921]

Good question

eog press release says 7.17 also another source has same number

Q2 AVERAGE SETTLEMENT PRICES

APRIL $5.336
MAY $7.267
JUNE $8.908

= Q2 average of $ 7.17

source

https://www.enspireenergy.com/nymex-settlement-history/

[uberCOAT]

Thanks for the website...will use that going forward if this is a better source.

[Fraser921]

I don't know which one is right. it's baffling to me as well

Trying to tie back to daily numbers..

[Fraser921]

Here is a clue

https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/ ... historical

Look at May 26th, exactly 8.908

Ok i figured it out

One is the average of the point in time settlement of one day

June ng settled on 5/26 at 8.908
July NG settled on 6/28 at precisely 6.551

so if you want to determine impact of hedges that settle on a certain day you use this

https://www.enspireenergy.com/nymex-settlement-history/

Settlements can be based on this Ie point in time or average or whatever the two parties agree on

The EIA data is in fact the monthly average of the daily amounts which do not include the weekend

If someone has to true up their 2.50 crap hedges against a point in time number its 8.908 less 2.50
If someone is true up on monthly average they would use eia number. Note June is a one day point in time number in May , LOL

All i can tell you is most EP quotes the former (point in time avg) in their earnings releases

One of the AEGIS webinar talked about this as some companies got screwed in Feb when the point in time number jumped up for one day (manipulated??) the only way you can protect yourself is to have a corresponding basis hedge


Showing items 19 to 36 of 124 records
NG:NMX Historical Data
Date Close/Last Volume Open High Low
06/13/2022 8.609 152,721 8.92 8.95 8.382
06/10/2022 8.85 119,968 8.997 9.149 8.622
06/09/2022 8.963 225,289 8.629 9.036 8.016
06/08/2022 8.699 228,418 9.335 9.664 8.427
06/07/2022 9.293 114,728 9.359 9.544 9.2
06/06/2022 9.322 122,874 8.75 9.4 8.732
06/03/2022 8.523 71,100 8.412 8.693 8.267
06/02/2022 8.485 113,670 8.783 9.057 8.377
06/01/2022 8.696 101,099 8.271 8.791 8.146
05/31/2022 8.145 119,734 8.874 8.916 8.118
05/27/2022 8.727 103,563 8.811 8.895 8.285
05/26/2022 8.908 1,466 8.984 9.401 8.785
05/25/2022 8.971 30,671 8.831 9.399 8.765
05/24/2022 8.796 29,545 8.727 8.93 8.605
05/23/2022 8.744 61,842 8.079 8.822 7.851
05/20/2022 8.083 79,975 8.112 8.189 7.837
05/19/2022 8.308 86,950 8.24 8.5 7.905
05/18/2022 8.368 78,067 8.318 8.548 8.1

[uberCOAT]

Great...thanks.

[dan_s]

The EIA chart is the "Spot Market" or "Cash Prices" in the physical market.
Here are the daily prices of the front month NYMEX contracts: https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas

It is very difficult to determine the average realized price that each company gets for their production. Especially during wild daily price swings.

Plus, the companies the size of AR, CTRA, CRK, EQT, EOG and RRC have outstanding marketing people who can and do get some of their gas to markets to take advantage of premium prices in some regions.

[uberCOAT]

Understood Dan..

Just was trying to determine a consistent data source for modeling purposes.

Thanks,