We have a live webinar today at 11AM CT
Pre-Market Oil Price from Trading Economics:
"WTI crude futures fell to below $103 per barrel on Wednesday after rallying for three straight days, weighed down by industry data pointing to a rise in US crude inventories and looming risks of a demand-sapping global recession. API data released Tuesday reportedly showed that US crude stockpiles expanded by almost 2 million barrels last week while gasoline holdings also rose, ahead of official EIA data due later on Wednesday. Growing concerns that a global fight against surging inflation would lead to a recession and hurt energy demand also continued to pressure oil markets. Meanwhile, the US oil benchmark gained more than 8% in the previous three sessions, supported by a weaker dollar and signs of ongoing supply tightness. ConocoPhillips CEO Ryan Lance warned Tuesday of looming oil shortages and price volatility as demand recovers to pre-pandemic levels, citing limited spare capacity among OPEC members and slow US production, Reuters reported." < Commercial crude oil inventories up because we are draining the SPR.
Oil & Gas Prices - July 20
Oil & Gas Prices - July 20
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Oil & Gas Prices - July 20
Opening Prices:
> WTI is down $1.97 to $102.25/bbl, and Brent is down $1.80 to $105.55/bbl.
> Natural gas is up 23.1c to $7.495/MMBtu.
AEGIS Notes
Oil
Russia continued to be China's top oil supplier in June as Chinese buyers profited from lower-priced supplies (BBG)
> Russian ESPO oil is being offered at a discount of $10 to $12/Bbl to competing varieties from Brazil
> Russian supplies to China in June were at 1.77 MMBbl/d which is below May's record of close to 2 MMBbl/d
> China and India are still willing buyers of Russian petroleum, and U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen is currently traveling in Asia to encourage consideration of a price cap on Russian oil to keep revenue in check while maintaining stable supplies
MY TAKE: The "Sanctions War" is not hurting Russia, it is helping China and India and it is crushing Europe. We have very dumb people in the OECD countries these days.
President Biden today will announce an executive action to address climate change today at an event in Massachusetts
> The emergency action the White House is considering among others would entail broad executive authority to divert funding to clean-energy construction, restrict drilling, and curb fossil fuel use
> Biden will reportedly announce plans to redirect federal funding to communities facing hot temperatures but is holding off for now on declaring climate change a national emergency
MY TAKE: This all about using FEAR to control the population and even more about the money. There is nothing we can do to control the Earth's Climate.
Natural Gas
Putin signals Nord Stream 1 pipeline will restart with conditions
> The Russian president warned that unless the spat over sanctioned parts is resolved, flows will be limited
> Maintenance on the pipeline is supposed to be concluded by Thursday, July 21
> If the pipeline part that was caught up in sanctions isn’t returned, flows will likely be reduced to around 20%
> German officials plan to take stock on Monday once they have a better idea of what Russian gas flows to Europe will look like over the next few months as the continent rushes to refill its stockpiles before winter
MY TAKE: Germany and all of Europe better start sucking up to Putin or thousands of their citizens will die this winter without adequate home heating fuels.
Prelude FLNG remains shutdown over worker pay dispute
> Shell last week began shutting down the site off northwestern Australia and told customers it would be unable to supply LNG cargoes for as long as the work stoppages continued
> Prelude has a capacity of 0.52Bcf/d, with most cargoes being shipped to Asia, where LNG is at record prices owing to the energy crisis in Europe
> The labor action began on June 10 and was expected to last 12 days; however, the work stoppages are now expected to last into August
> WTI is down $1.97 to $102.25/bbl, and Brent is down $1.80 to $105.55/bbl.
> Natural gas is up 23.1c to $7.495/MMBtu.
AEGIS Notes
Oil
Russia continued to be China's top oil supplier in June as Chinese buyers profited from lower-priced supplies (BBG)
> Russian ESPO oil is being offered at a discount of $10 to $12/Bbl to competing varieties from Brazil
> Russian supplies to China in June were at 1.77 MMBbl/d which is below May's record of close to 2 MMBbl/d
> China and India are still willing buyers of Russian petroleum, and U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen is currently traveling in Asia to encourage consideration of a price cap on Russian oil to keep revenue in check while maintaining stable supplies
MY TAKE: The "Sanctions War" is not hurting Russia, it is helping China and India and it is crushing Europe. We have very dumb people in the OECD countries these days.
President Biden today will announce an executive action to address climate change today at an event in Massachusetts
> The emergency action the White House is considering among others would entail broad executive authority to divert funding to clean-energy construction, restrict drilling, and curb fossil fuel use
> Biden will reportedly announce plans to redirect federal funding to communities facing hot temperatures but is holding off for now on declaring climate change a national emergency
MY TAKE: This all about using FEAR to control the population and even more about the money. There is nothing we can do to control the Earth's Climate.
Natural Gas
Putin signals Nord Stream 1 pipeline will restart with conditions
> The Russian president warned that unless the spat over sanctioned parts is resolved, flows will be limited
> Maintenance on the pipeline is supposed to be concluded by Thursday, July 21
> If the pipeline part that was caught up in sanctions isn’t returned, flows will likely be reduced to around 20%
> German officials plan to take stock on Monday once they have a better idea of what Russian gas flows to Europe will look like over the next few months as the continent rushes to refill its stockpiles before winter
MY TAKE: Germany and all of Europe better start sucking up to Putin or thousands of their citizens will die this winter without adequate home heating fuels.
Prelude FLNG remains shutdown over worker pay dispute
> Shell last week began shutting down the site off northwestern Australia and told customers it would be unable to supply LNG cargoes for as long as the work stoppages continued
> Prelude has a capacity of 0.52Bcf/d, with most cargoes being shipped to Asia, where LNG is at record prices owing to the energy crisis in Europe
> The labor action began on June 10 and was expected to last 12 days; however, the work stoppages are now expected to last into August
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Oil & Gas Prices - July 20
This is just the beginning. I expect physical rationing to start in Q4.
EU Commission confirms gas demand reduction plan to prepare EU for supply cuts
The European Union faces the risk of further gas supply cuts from Russia, due to the Kremlin's weaponization of gas exports, with almost half of our Member States already affected by reduced deliveries. Taking action now can reduce both the risk and the costs for Europe in case of further or full disruption, strengthening European energy resilience.
The Commission is therefore proposing today a new legislative tool and a European Gas Demand Reduction Plan, to reduce gas use in Europe by 15% until next spring. All consumers, public administrations, households, owners of public buildings, power suppliers and industry can and should take measures to save gas. The Commission will also accelerate work on supply diversification, including joint purchasing of gas to strengthen the EU's possibility of sourcing alternative gas deliveries.
Details here: https://ec.europa.eu/commission/pressco ... ip_22_4608
EU Commission confirms gas demand reduction plan to prepare EU for supply cuts
The European Union faces the risk of further gas supply cuts from Russia, due to the Kremlin's weaponization of gas exports, with almost half of our Member States already affected by reduced deliveries. Taking action now can reduce both the risk and the costs for Europe in case of further or full disruption, strengthening European energy resilience.
The Commission is therefore proposing today a new legislative tool and a European Gas Demand Reduction Plan, to reduce gas use in Europe by 15% until next spring. All consumers, public administrations, households, owners of public buildings, power suppliers and industry can and should take measures to save gas. The Commission will also accelerate work on supply diversification, including joint purchasing of gas to strengthen the EU's possibility of sourcing alternative gas deliveries.
Details here: https://ec.europa.eu/commission/pressco ... ip_22_4608
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Oil & Gas Prices - July 20
Closing Prices:
> Prompt-Month WTI (Aug 22) was down $-1.96 on the day, to settle at $102.26
> Prompt-Month Henry Hub (Aug 22) was up $0.743 on the day, to settle at $8.007
MY TAKE: I really HOPE that WTI flops around in the $100 to $105 range for a few months. We do not need higher oil prices for our upstream companies to have STRONG 2022 results. I still think we are one supply problem (i.e. - hurricane, workers' strike, conflict in Libya, sanctions on Russia) away from a price spike. The global oil market is extremely tight and OECD petroleum inventories are at historic lows.
> Prompt-Month WTI (Aug 22) was down $-1.96 on the day, to settle at $102.26
> Prompt-Month Henry Hub (Aug 22) was up $0.743 on the day, to settle at $8.007
MY TAKE: I really HOPE that WTI flops around in the $100 to $105 range for a few months. We do not need higher oil prices for our upstream companies to have STRONG 2022 results. I still think we are one supply problem (i.e. - hurricane, workers' strike, conflict in Libya, sanctions on Russia) away from a price spike. The global oil market is extremely tight and OECD petroleum inventories are at historic lows.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Oil & Gas Prices - July 20
I am happy with crude at 100 and I agree we will do well with that price. Anything above it is gravy