EIA - Natural Gas Storage Report - July 28

[dan_s]

This is a very bullish report for natural gas prices.

Working gas in storage was 2,416 Bcf as of Friday, July 22, 2022, according to EIA estimates.
This represents a net increase of 15 Bcf from the previous week.
Stocks were 293 Bcf less than last year at this time and 345 Bcf below the five-year average of 2,761 Bcf.
At 2,416 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.

Over the last 13 weeks (Qtr of a year) the storage builds have been a total of 36 Bcf below the 5-year average. The deficit to the 5-year average continues to increase and there are now just 16 weeks left in the refill season.

The 5-year average ngas storage level is 3,735 Bcf to begin the winter (mid-November). Keep in mind that demand for US natural gas is much higher than it was 5 years ago.

Unless weather in August and September turns very mild (extremely unlikely) there is zero chance that natural gas in storage will come close to the 5-year average before the winter heating season begins. So, utilities are bidding against each other and the LNG exporters for physical supply.

Freeport LNG is scheduled to come back online in November and we will have hurricane activity in the Gulf of Mexico. This is setting up a very interesting U.S. natural gas market for Q4. Hang on to those gassers.

[uberCOAT]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TA3ckZKk9w8

GEFS & EPS models - prediction "HOT" through the first half of August with the most impressive heat dome right over the Central US.