Update on Russia - Aug 24

[dan_s]

Citi Says Russian Oil Faces ‘Crossroads’ as EU Curbs Erode Flows
2022-08-24 01:23:08.681 GMT

By Sharon Cho
(Bloomberg) -- Flows of Russian crude oil and products may
drop by more than 1m b/d as a fresh round of of EU sanctions
begins in December followed by additional curbs in February,
according to Citigroup Inc.
* Russian oil is “at a crossroads with steady exports for now,
but a looming EU embargo pointing to output erosion, not a
collapse,” analysts including Ed Morse said in a note dated Aug.
23
* An estimated 1.25m b/d of crude oil and refined-product flows
are “potentially at risk” because of the curbs, Citi said
** “Projections of over 3m b/d loss of Russian output are
largely overstated,” bank said
* NOTE: The EU is set to halt most crude purchases from Russia
from Dec. 5 in a bid to cut off revenue streams that the Kremlin
uses to finance its war in Ukraine. A bar on products will
follow in February
* While Russian oil production rose by ~700k b/d since April and
~168k b/d since June at 10.7m b/d, that trend seems likely to
reverse in the second half
* Russia’s Ministry of Economic Development has forecast oil
output at 9.54m b/d in 2023 vs 10.34m b/d this year
** Output estimated at 9.64m b/d and 9.74m b/d for 2024 and
2025, respectively
* In terms of gas, output dropped by 34% since start of 2022 and
is 21% lower y/y amid curtailed exports to Europe

[aja57]

This is insane. What Europe is effectively doing is punching themselves in the face until the Russians give in.

[dan_s]

I guess that in "Woke World" it is the cool thing to do.
I feel sorry for the innocent people of Ukraine that are caught up in this war, but is it wise to keep sending more weapons to Ukraine to prolong the war?
The "Sanctions War" is going to destroy the EU economy and the lives of many of the citizens.

[Fraser921]

Please sir, may I have another!