Sweet 16 Update: January 9

[dan_s]

I have updated the Sweet 16 spreadsheet and posted it under the Sweet 16 Tab. EPG Premium Members can log on to check it out, just click on the Sweet 16 Forecasts link.

I have updated my Fair Value estimate for each company and compare it to the current First Call 12-month price target for each stock. Click on the Excel versions 2nd tab to see them.

The Sweet 16 is up 5.9% in the first five trading days of 2012 compared to the S&P 500 Index, which is up 1.8%. A concentrated portfolio like this has a much higher beta than a broad index.

DNR and TGA are leading the pack, both up about 15% YTD. Both are still way below my Fair Value estimates. They are both heavily weighted to oil.

GEOI and HP are getting close to my Fair Value estimates. That does not worry me as both are high quality and once I see Q4 results I will probabley raise my Fair Value estimates. First Call's price targets on both companies are currently higher than my Fair Value estimates.

Note: There is nothing wrong with the five companies dropped from last year's S-16. All should have good Q4 results.