AR and AM will report Q3 results after the markets close today. AR is likely not to hit my Q3 net income forecast because they will probably report lower realized NGL prices than my forecast. However, my valuation of AR will probably go up because I am dropping 2021 operating CFPS from my valuation calculation. 2022 CFPS will be much more than 2X higher than the $4.92 CFPS AR reported in 2021 and 2023 CFPS will be much higher than 2022.
AR is going to generate over $3.5 billion of operating cash flow in 2022, which compares to $844.7 million in 2020 and $1,545.4 million in 2021.
Very few public companies can match this kind of growth.
Antero Resources (AR) Q3 Results - Oct 26
Antero Resources (AR) Q3 Results - Oct 26
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Antero Resources (AR) Q3 Results - Oct 26
AR OUT, FIRST GLANCE BLOW OUT
https://www.anteroresources.com/investo ... ancial-and
FCF 797M, Spent half on buybacks, half on debt reduction
- authorized a $1 billion increase in the
Company's share repurchase program to $2 billion.
https://www.anteroresources.com/investo ... ancial-and
FCF 797M, Spent half on buybacks, half on debt reduction
- authorized a $1 billion increase in the
Company's share repurchase program to $2 billion.
Re: Antero Resources (AR) Q3 Results - Oct 26
Generating cash, paying off debt, buying back shares, acquiring more locations and increasing mineral interests. $.49 premium to NYMEX gas, no new hedges, $50.61 BBL NGL's! Quite a well executed business plan. Give Paul Rady a nice bonus!!1
Re: Antero Resources (AR) Q3 Results - Oct 26
I don't believe the these EPS numbers are correct, can anyone verify? From Yahoo, the consensus was $1.87 and from the 3rd Quarter report, I saw $1.72 per diluted share. Given the debt reduction and shares buyback, this should not be a big deal. According to Zack's they also beat revenue by almost 5%:
Antero Resources (AR Quick QuoteAR - Research Report) came out with quarterly earnings of $1.63 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.91 per share. This compares to earnings of $0.19 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.
This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of -14.66%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this oil and natural gas producer would post earnings of $1.92 per share when it actually produced earnings of $1.69, delivering a surprise of -11.98%.
Over the last four quarters, the company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates just once.
Antero Resources, which belongs to the Zacks Oil and Gas - Exploration and Production - United States industry, posted revenues of $2.06 billion for the quarter ended September 2022, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 4.39%. This compares to year-ago revenues of $534.42 million. The company has topped consensus revenue estimates three times over the last four quarters.
The sustainability of the stock's immediate price movement based on the recently-released numbers and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's commentary on the earnings call
Antero Resources (AR Quick QuoteAR - Research Report) came out with quarterly earnings of $1.63 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.91 per share. This compares to earnings of $0.19 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.
This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of -14.66%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this oil and natural gas producer would post earnings of $1.92 per share when it actually produced earnings of $1.69, delivering a surprise of -11.98%.
Over the last four quarters, the company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates just once.
Antero Resources, which belongs to the Zacks Oil and Gas - Exploration and Production - United States industry, posted revenues of $2.06 billion for the quarter ended September 2022, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 4.39%. This compares to year-ago revenues of $534.42 million. The company has topped consensus revenue estimates three times over the last four quarters.
The sustainability of the stock's immediate price movement based on the recently-released numbers and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's commentary on the earnings call
Re: Antero Resources (AR) Q3 Results - Oct 26
DENVER, Oct. 26, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- Antero Resources Corporation (NYSE: AR) ("Antero Resources," "Antero," or the "Company") today announced its third quarter 2022 financial and operating results. The relevant consolidated financial statements are included in Antero Resources' Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended September 30, 2022.
Third Quarter 2022 Highlights Include:
Net production averaged 3.2 Bcfe/d, including 171 MBbl/d of liquids < Compares to my forecast of 3.327 Bcfe/day, 181 MBbl/day of liquids.
Antero's reason for production miss: "Net daily natural gas equivalent production in the third quarter averaged 3.2 Bcfe/d, including 171 MBbl/d of liquids, as detailed in the table below. Due to the ongoing commissioning of the Shell Cracker and an NGL downstream pipeline outage at the beginning of October that required volumes to be shut in temporarily, Antero anticipates fourth quarter production volumes will be 3.25 to 3.35 Bcfe/d. Full year 2022 production guidance remains unchanged at a range of 3.2 to 3.3 Bcfe/d with expectations to now be at the low end of the range."
Realized pre-hedge natural gas price of $8.69 per Mcf, a $0.49 per Mcf premium to NYMEX pricing
Realized C3+ NGL price of $50.61 per barrel, or 55% of WTI
Net income was $560 million, Adjusted Net Income was $531 million (Non-GAAP) < Adjusted Net Income compares to my forecast of $665.7 million. This is still a very good quarter, just not a "record quarter" that I was expecting.
Adjusted EBITDAX was $878 million (Non-GAAP); net cash provided by operating activities was $1.1 billion < This is good news. My operating cash flow forecast was $1,076,315.
Free Cash Flow was $797 million (Non-GAAP)
Reduced total debt by $404 million during the quarter
Purchased $382 million of shares during the quarter
Net Debt at quarter end was $1.17 billion (Non-GAAP)
Net Debt to trailing last twelve month Adjusted EBITDAX declined to 0.4x (Non-GAAP) < VERY GOOD!
Paul Rady, Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President of Antero Resources commented, "Antero's third quarter results reflect the Company's core strengths that include access to premium priced markets through our firm transportation portfolio and low absolute debt. At a time when basis differentials are widening across the U.S., Antero's differentiated strategy delivered a $0.49 per Mcf premium to NYMEX. Through our direct sales contracts along the LNG corridor, we anticipate our premium in basis pricing relative to NYMEX Henry Hub to increase further as additional LNG facilities are placed in service. Today's balance sheet strength and a strong Free Cash Flow outlook will allow us to deliver significant capital returns to our shareholders in the quarters ahead."
Mr. Rady continued, "We remain committed to maintaining our leadership position in ESG. Our 2021 ESG achievements highlight our continued focus on the communities where we live and operate, while keeping our workforce safe. We have made tremendous progress on our commitment to achieve Net Zero Scope 1 and 2 GHG emissions by 2025, already reducing our peer-leading GHG emissions by 36% since 2019. Our ability to provide lower carbon energy to both our communities at home and abroad, directly improves the health, safety and livelihood for people living in energy poverty."
Michael Kennedy, Chief Financial Officer of Antero Resources said, "The $1 billion increase in our share repurchase authorization highlights the confidence we have in our business strategy and the significant Free Cash Flow that it generates."
Mr. Kennedy added, "Since the start of our debt reduction program in the fourth quarter of 2019, we have reduced debt by $2.6 billion, including $400 million during the third quarter and almost $1 billion year to date. Because of this aggressive focus on debt reduction, we are now poised to return the majority of our Free Cash Flow to our shareholders."
Third Quarter 2022 Highlights Include:
Net production averaged 3.2 Bcfe/d, including 171 MBbl/d of liquids < Compares to my forecast of 3.327 Bcfe/day, 181 MBbl/day of liquids.
Antero's reason for production miss: "Net daily natural gas equivalent production in the third quarter averaged 3.2 Bcfe/d, including 171 MBbl/d of liquids, as detailed in the table below. Due to the ongoing commissioning of the Shell Cracker and an NGL downstream pipeline outage at the beginning of October that required volumes to be shut in temporarily, Antero anticipates fourth quarter production volumes will be 3.25 to 3.35 Bcfe/d. Full year 2022 production guidance remains unchanged at a range of 3.2 to 3.3 Bcfe/d with expectations to now be at the low end of the range."
Realized pre-hedge natural gas price of $8.69 per Mcf, a $0.49 per Mcf premium to NYMEX pricing
Realized C3+ NGL price of $50.61 per barrel, or 55% of WTI
Net income was $560 million, Adjusted Net Income was $531 million (Non-GAAP) < Adjusted Net Income compares to my forecast of $665.7 million. This is still a very good quarter, just not a "record quarter" that I was expecting.
Adjusted EBITDAX was $878 million (Non-GAAP); net cash provided by operating activities was $1.1 billion < This is good news. My operating cash flow forecast was $1,076,315.
Free Cash Flow was $797 million (Non-GAAP)
Reduced total debt by $404 million during the quarter
Purchased $382 million of shares during the quarter
Net Debt at quarter end was $1.17 billion (Non-GAAP)
Net Debt to trailing last twelve month Adjusted EBITDAX declined to 0.4x (Non-GAAP) < VERY GOOD!
Paul Rady, Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President of Antero Resources commented, "Antero's third quarter results reflect the Company's core strengths that include access to premium priced markets through our firm transportation portfolio and low absolute debt. At a time when basis differentials are widening across the U.S., Antero's differentiated strategy delivered a $0.49 per Mcf premium to NYMEX. Through our direct sales contracts along the LNG corridor, we anticipate our premium in basis pricing relative to NYMEX Henry Hub to increase further as additional LNG facilities are placed in service. Today's balance sheet strength and a strong Free Cash Flow outlook will allow us to deliver significant capital returns to our shareholders in the quarters ahead."
Mr. Rady continued, "We remain committed to maintaining our leadership position in ESG. Our 2021 ESG achievements highlight our continued focus on the communities where we live and operate, while keeping our workforce safe. We have made tremendous progress on our commitment to achieve Net Zero Scope 1 and 2 GHG emissions by 2025, already reducing our peer-leading GHG emissions by 36% since 2019. Our ability to provide lower carbon energy to both our communities at home and abroad, directly improves the health, safety and livelihood for people living in energy poverty."
Michael Kennedy, Chief Financial Officer of Antero Resources said, "The $1 billion increase in our share repurchase authorization highlights the confidence we have in our business strategy and the significant Free Cash Flow that it generates."
Mr. Kennedy added, "Since the start of our debt reduction program in the fourth quarter of 2019, we have reduced debt by $2.6 billion, including $400 million during the third quarter and almost $1 billion year to date. Because of this aggressive focus on debt reduction, we are now poised to return the majority of our Free Cash Flow to our shareholders."
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Antero Resources (AR) Q3 Results - Oct 26
AR slide deck here
https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/_a ... ion_vF.pdf
Best gasser imho
All one has to do is look at FCF.
AR 797 EV 11 b
EQT 591 EV 20 b > Less FCF at almost twice the EV
FCF ROI
AR > 30 %
EQT > 15 %
https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/_a ... ion_vF.pdf
Best gasser imho
All one has to do is look at FCF.
AR 797 EV 11 b
EQT 591 EV 20 b > Less FCF at almost twice the EV
FCF ROI
AR > 30 %
EQT > 15 %