PTEN

[dan_s]

An updated forecast model for Patterson-UTI Energy (PTEN) has been posted under the Sweet 16 Tab. PTEN is one of the two onshore drillers that has been added to our Sweet 16 Growth Portfolio.

[setliff]

i just sold HP and bought more pten. playing the FVs and charts. i see more near upside in pten than HP.

fwiw of course.

[setliff]

damn, land drillers reallly took a hit today. i can't find anytthing technically for this---they were slightly overbought, but not by rsi.

fundamentally, natty took a 5% hit--could that be the reason?

[bobs]

How dependent are PTENs rigs tied to NG pricing vs NGL and oil...any ideas????

[setliff]

don't know, but one "smart" guy on cnbc--in fact it was a raymond james guy--said this low natty price would not have much effect on nat gas drilling cause marcellus is expecting to continue on and barnett has already slowed way down.

[mingya]

check out H&P’s recent presentation - it nicely shows how the rigs (which are fit for the job) are moving to oil and liquids rich gas

whole slide deck is very readable, but your questions on where the rigs are going is quite clearly explained

slide 23 - shows the plays rigs are contracted
slide 24 - only 25% are focused on dry gas
slide 37 - huge shift to rigs focused on oil
slide 39 - oil is now difficult drilling - just like gas

and H&P has the rigs required for the job - AC drive rigs are required and that is their bread and butter
look at the market share gains in slides 12 and 13 and have capacity for 48 new builds per year ...
as factory drilling required, consistent fleet uniformity is an advantage now

it is a simple and easy to understand story and why I like that stock

[dan_s]

HP Flex Rigs are the best in the business and there is a waiting line to get them. Each new rig goes out on a three year contract as soon as it is tested.

PTEN also has some very good high end rigs that will remain in high demand.

You can find my forecast models for both companies under the Sweet 16 tab. Just click on their logos.