EIA - Natural Gas Storage Report - Nov 10

[dan_s]

Working gas in storage was 3,580 Bcf as of Friday, November 4, 2022, according to EIA estimates.
This represents a net increase of 79 Bcf from the previous week.
Stocks were 37 Bcf less than last year at this time and 76 Bcf below the five-year average of 3,656 Bcf.
At 3,580 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.

In the last 8 weeks the deficit to the 5-year average has been reduced by 288 Bcf. I sure didn't think that was possible. < This is a reminder that natural gas does not just go to storage by accident. It is purchased by utilities that direct it to their storage locations.

We should have one more large build for the week ending November 11, then winter like weather moves into the NE quarter of the US, so the draws from storage will show up in the report for the week ending November 18.

Weather will be the primary driver of natural gas demand and prices starting this weekend. When Hurricane Nicole moves up the east coast, very cold air will be pushed south by the counterclockwise wind flow.

Demand for U.S. natural gas is much higher than it was five years ago. We really need to expand the storage network to avoid regional shortages during cold winters.

[SergioSays]

I think the continued delays on Freeport startup has been a big factor in the larger than forecasted builds recently.

[dan_s]

I agree, but the scramble of the utilities to go into the physical market to get more gas into storage before the real winter weather arrives is the primary reason.

If we have a cold start to winter (next week definitely looks encouraging), the bidding war between the utilities and the LNG export companies could get intense.

Look for spot price over $30/MMBtu in the Northeast to draw a lot of attention.