Question on your podcast

[Fraser921]

Dan, I watched your latest video and have a question.

Is your NG draw forecast a swag ?.

The reason I ask is Celsius Energy provides a forecast based on latest models.
You have -530 next 4 weeks, he has (-26,-31,-88,-106) =-251 That's a huge disconnect -530 vs -251. Celsius has a + 121 to 5 year avg. projecting warmer than standard next 3 weeks then back to 5 yr avg in week 4 ending 12/23

The weakness last week in NG was partially due to diminished expectations in the weather models as Bastardi's frigid forecast isn't happening to the extent he though it was.

It didn't get better over the weekend ---Arrrrgh

I loved your CRK focus. Best reason to buy NG fundamentals and no crap hedges going into 2023. Q1 will be awesome! The timing of the Pref exchange doesn't impact average o/s shares (too much) in q4 and in q1 2023 they will have best qtr in their history to offset the dilution with winter price realizations and no crap hedges.

[dan_s]

I believe the GSF weather model (from the US weather service) is wrong. Both the Canadian and European models show much colder December for US.
Watch Joe's Saturday Summary to see why: https://www.weatherbell.com/premium/

My estimates of draws over the last five weeks are
Dec 2 = 110 Bcf
Dec 9 = 150 Bcf
Dec 16 = 130 Bcf
Dec 23 = 140 Bcf
Dec 30 = 150 Bcf
Storage deficit to the 5-year average is ~280 Bcf

Weather will need to turn very mild for the rest of December for the Celsius forecast to right.

[sl6886]

Freeport delayed to 1st quarter - I'm beginning to suspect CIA involvement.

[dan_s]

No telling what this administration will do next.

[Fraser921]

I didn’t know more Freeport delays. Wow
There’s reports tonight of Biden with secret deal with Saudi’s
Goes back to the Story last month or clemency
For the reporter drawn and qtr killing

[Fraser921]

It’s a total crap shoot in weather , the freaking numbers all over the place.