EIA - Natural Gas Storage Report - Dec 22

[dan_s]

Working gas in storage was 3,325 Bcf as of Friday, December 16, 2022, according to EIA estimates.
This represents a net decrease of 87 Bcf from the previous week.
Stocks were 45 Bcf less than last year at this time and 22 Bcf above the five-year average of 3,303 Bcf.
At 3,325 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.

My SWAG was a draw of 90 Bcf.

Next week's draw should be more than double the 5-year average draw for the week ending December 23, which is 94 Bcf.

Last weekly draw (for week ending December 30) should also top the 5-year average of 104 Bcf.

My SWAG is that from December 17 to 31 over 350 Bcf will be drawn from storage, so we should begin 2023 with less that 3,000 Bcf in storage.
Here are the 5-year average draws for the Q1:
Jan: 691 Bcf
Feb: 559 Bcf
Mar: 275 Bcf
Q1 : 1,525 Bcf < So, a normal Q1 winter should push storage below 1,500 Bcf by the end of March. This compares to the 5-year average of 1,662 Bcf. La Nina winters are not "normal". Some of the coldest winters in the U.S. are caused by La Nina's impact on the jet stream.

Getting the Freeport LNG export facility back online would definitely help the outlook for natural gas prices, but the price will continue to drift up and down with weather forecasts. La Nina winters are known for big swings in the northern jet stream. Today we see what happens when the dip in jet stream comes down the middle of the country. Next week we will see what happens the ridge comes back up through Texas and Oklahoma.