Elliott could reduce US natural gas supply for months

[dan_s]

This is significant change in the supply/demand fundamentals for the U.S.
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S&P Global Commodity Insights 12-28-2022
A full rebound in US natural gas production could be at risk following the recent freeze-off as many operators wrap up 2022 production targets heading into the new year when domestic output typically slows.

Over the past several days, US gas production has rebounded sharply after bottoming out at just 82.7 Bcf/d Dec. 25 when snow, ice, and frigid temperatures curtailed output from major basins, including Appalachia, the Permian, Haynesville, Bakken, and the Denver-Julesburg, among others. Domestic production was estimated at around 86.1 Bcf/d Dec. 28, down about 1.6 Bcf from Dec. 27 as the output continues to thaw out in a rocky recovery.

Over the Christmas holiday weekend, temperatures around Pittsburgh plunged to as much as 4 degrees Fahrenheit below zero, fueling a nearly 10 Bcf/d drop in Appalachian Basin gas production. Even basins farther south faced temperatures that plummeted to around 10 F in both Shreveport, Louisiana, and Midland, Texas. In Louisiana's Haynesville shale, production dropped about 1.2 Bcf/d as a result. In the Permian Basin of West Texas, the decline registered as much as 2.5 Bcf/d, data from S&P Global Commodity Insights shows.

While output now appears to be on the rebound, recent history suggests—not only that freeze-off impacts could linger into the new year—but that many producers may end up holding back output from a full rebound until sometime later in the first quarter of 2023 or beyond.

Read more: https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsig ... ct-lingers