Oil & Gas Prices - May 1

[dan_s]

Opening Prices:
> WTI is down $1.64 to $75.14/bbl, and Brent is down $1.55 to $78.78/bbl.
> Natural gas is down -4.1c to $2.369/MMBtu.

AEGIS Notes with my comments in blue
Oil

Oil extends losses amid weak Chinese economic data and concerns about an economic slowdown
> June ’23 WTI lost $1.65 today morning to trade around $75.13

China’s manufacturing activity unexpectedly contracted in April, emphasizing an unevenness in the nation’s crude demand recovery
> Additionally, China will observe a Labor Day holiday until Wednesday, with consumer expenditures and travel being monitored for additional signals of demand recovery

The market awaits this week’s Fed meeting (May 2-3), with most expecting the Fed to deliver another rate hike < IMO the interest rate hikes are overdone and it is time for them to stop. A better idea is for the U.S. government to quit printing money to fund Green New Deal dumb ideas.
> The U.S. dollar strengthened relative to its recent highs, making dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for buyers holding other currencies

Russian diesel exports set to decline sharply in May (BBG) < This is a key part of my fundamental belief that triple digit oil prices will return by Q4 2023. In my forecast models I am using WTI prices of $80/bbl in Q3 and $90/bbl in Q4.
> Russia's seaborne diesel exports from key western ports are expected to drop significantly in May due to spring refinery maintenance
> May's planned diesel shipments are considerably below the seasonal average, hinting at the impact of Russia's oil production cuts
> Diesel export volumes from Russian ports in the Black and Baltic Seas are set to fall to 0.4 MMBbl/d in May, a 32% decline from April's daily loading plans < U.S. diesel inventories are ~12% below the 5-year average for this time of year.

Natural Gas

June '23 natural gas is trading slightly lower after posting modest gains last week
> Weather forecasts shifted warmer, with the Lower 48 forecast gaining 13.9 °F over the two-week period < They are still burning ngas for space heating in the Great Lakes Region where nightly lows are expected to be in the 40s all week.
> Production saw a steep decline, with early nominations indicating a decrease of 1.81 Bcf/d, resulting in 100.68 Bcf/d this morning. The drop comes after the weekend supply rose as high as 102.49 Bcf/d
> Gas demand in the Lower 48 is expected to stay above 69 Bcf/d this week; however, demand is likely to decrease by mid-May due to milder weather conditions < This does not include exports.

Columbia Gulf Transmission Pipeline lifts force majeure (BBG)
> On Friday, Columbia Gulf Transmission Pipeline was affected by a suspected lightning strike that started a fire, temporarily halting flows
> Out of safety concerns, all volume entering the Corinth Compressor Station was physically reduced to zero early Friday morning
> The facility restored some volumes by late Friday afternoon and officially removed the force majeure on Saturday

[Fraser921]

Record production causing glut

Sell gassers now! Dan has a link to this site on his home page. He must like them!

https://twitter.com/CelsiusEnergyFM/status/1653021951311396864?s=20