Opening Prices:
> WTI is down $0.72 to $73.14/bbl, and Brent is down $0.74 to $77.73/bbl. < WTI is back to $73.75 at 9AM CT.
> Natural gas is up 8.4c to $2.666/MMBtu.
AEGIS Notes
Oil
Oil trades lower following its biggest weekly gain since April
> August ’23 WTI lost 72c this morning to trade around $73.14/Bbl
> Equities trade lower while the dollar strengthened, making commodities priced in USD more expensive for holders of other currencies
> Despite June’s lower-than-expected job growth in the US, steady wage growth and reduced unemployment could likely keep the Fed on track for future rate hikes < It is my opinion that a serious recession in the U.S. will not happen as long as we have near full employment.
> Additionally, China's factory gate prices fell at their fastest pace in more than seven years in June, declining 5.4% from a year earlier
> However, Saudi Arabia and Russia’s extended production cuts through August support prices
> The market will be closely watching the US CPI report for June on Wednesday and OPEC and IEA’s monthly reports on Thursday < I believe that this month's IEA report will be very important. If it agrees with what I said in my July 8 podcast (that demand for oil exceeds supply TODAY), oil prices should move over $80/bbl within a few weeks.
US to buy more oil to fill emergency reserves (BBG)
> The Biden administration announced on Fridays that it will purchase 6 MMBbl of crude oil for the SPR
> The purchases are scheduled for October and November and will bring the total amount of oil purchased by the administration to 12 MMBbl this year
< I will believe this when the SPR actually increases.
Pemex oil platform explosion impacts a third of daily output (BBG)
> A platform explosion at Pemex's Cantarell field on Friday killed two people and also caused production losses of about 700,000 Bbl/d. Pemex has had a number of accidents in recent years; most of Mexico's crude production (1.6 MMBbl/d) comes from the Gulf of Mexico.
Natural Gas
Natural gas prices are higher by 3.25% to $2.66, reversing losses from Friday
> The Winter ‘23/’24 strip is up 6.5c to $3.54, and the Summer ’24 strip is higher by 4c to $3.31
> Lower 48 weather forecasts warmed by 4.3 °F over the two-week period, with weather models indicating slightly warmer-than-average temperatures throughout the forecast period
> On Friday, the Baker Hughes natural gas rig count jumped by nine rigs, the largest weekly increase since 2016
LNG export projects could face labor challenges (Reuters)
> A representative from Bechtel Corp, which has built 30% of the world’s LNG facilities, said, “Labor has grown as an inflationary concern for everyone in the industry. We need to actively forecast and manage labor availability and supply chain like never before,"
> Cheniere has scheduled its construction projects in a way that will allow it to move workers from one project immediately to the next to avoid losing workers and preordered materials to avoid inflationary pressures
> Some facilities are utilizing pre-built modular designs, which are cheaper and have lower installation costs
Golden Pass LNG ( https://www.goldenpasslng.com/about ) is the next large LNG export facility to come online. It is expected to begin taking delivery of ngas in mid-2024. After Golden Pass, Plaquemines LNG should come online early in 2025. Both projects are ahead of schedule.
Oil & Gas Prices - July 10
Oil & Gas Prices - July 10
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Oil & Gas Prices - July 10
Closing Prices:
> Prompt-Month WTI (Aug 23) was down $-0.87 on the day, to settle at $72.99
> Prompt-Month Henry Hub (Aug 23) was up $0.08 on the day, to settle at $2.66
> Prompt-Month WTI (Aug 23) was down $-0.87 on the day, to settle at $72.99
> Prompt-Month Henry Hub (Aug 23) was up $0.08 on the day, to settle at $2.66
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Oil & Gas Prices - July 10
Im out of breath with excitement
U.S. Department of Energy Announces Another Purchase of 6 MMbbl for SPR
The U.S. Department of Energy announced that it would buy approximately 6 million barrels of crude oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) in a bid to continue replenishing the reserve and protect the nation's energy security. The purchase is targeted for October/November of 2023 and is the third solicitation for volumes made by the DOE this year.
The first two solicitations for a cumulative 6.3 MMbbl were performed at a price of $72.67/bbl, which compares with the 2022 sale price of $95/bbl when SPR volumes were being sold.
U.S. Department of Energy Announces Another Purchase of 6 MMbbl for SPR
The U.S. Department of Energy announced that it would buy approximately 6 million barrels of crude oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) in a bid to continue replenishing the reserve and protect the nation's energy security. The purchase is targeted for October/November of 2023 and is the third solicitation for volumes made by the DOE this year.
The first two solicitations for a cumulative 6.3 MMbbl were performed at a price of $72.67/bbl, which compares with the 2022 sale price of $95/bbl when SPR volumes were being sold.