EIA - Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report - Aug 10

[dan_s]

Working gas in storage was 3,030 Bcf as of Friday, August 4, 2023, according to EIA estimates.
This represents a net increase of 29 Bcf from the previous week.
Stocks were 535 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 305 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,725 Bcf.
At 3,030 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.

There is still plenty of room in storage, but the best we can hope for is that the surplus is 200 Bcf at the beginning of the winter heating season.
If the surplus to the 5-year average keeps falling thru Sept, HH gas should move over $3.00, with some chance at $3.50 in October. It will take a colder than normal December to keep it that high.
I'd like to see all of our gassers hedging a high percentage of their Q1 2024 gas at current strip prices.
A colder than normal winter (Dec thru Mar) should set up a bullish 2H 2024 for the gassers. Beyond 2024 looks very bullish.
Risk of a mild winter is high.

[dan_s]

See NYMEX Strip prices here: https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/natural-gas/natural-gas.quotes.html#venue=globex

If CRK would lock in those 2024 prices my valuation would go higher.

[Fraser921]

What were people expecting for this week? NG sold off hard today