Oil & Gas Prices - Aug 11

[dan_s]

OPENING PRICES:
> WTI is up $0.48 to $83.30/bbl, and Brent is up $0.49 to $86.89/bbl.
> Natural gas is down -2.1c to $2.742/MMBtu.
Prices are running above what I am using in all of my Q3 forecasts. $80 for WTI and $2.50 for HH ngas.

AEGIS NOTES
OIL

Higher-than-expected oil demand has helped oil rally 20% since early July
Global oil demand has reached 103 MMBbl/d for the first time, according to the IEA
“Oil demand is scaling to record highs, boosted by stronger summer air travel, increased oil use in power generation, and surging Chinese petrochemical activity,” the Paris-based IEA said

AEGIS notes that strong demand coupled with OPEC+ supply cuts threaten to push oil prices higher

Oil differentials and crack spread:
WTI Midland and Magellan East Houston (MEH) both traded at their largest premiums to oil at Cushing in four weeks on Thursday (Bloomberg)
MEH rose 15c to +$1.55/Bbl to Cushing
WTI Midland was also up 15c to +$1.40/Bbl on Thursday

The Nymex gasoline crack rose 20c to 39.19/Bbl, highest since August 1
The gasoline crack is seasonally at its highest price in at least 20 years as demand surges and global product inventories are low

NATURAL GAS

Natural gas prices are lower again today, but the prompt contract is still heading for the first weekly gain in two weeks
Weather forecast changes are mixed, with the South Central’s forecast warming and the Midwest and Northeast forecast cooling
Lower 48 temperatures are expected to be above the 10-year average going into the rest of August

Gas production remains lower at 100.5 Bcf/d due to maintenance on pipelines in the Northeast

Venture Global’s Plaquemines provides construction update
In a filing with FERC, Venture Global has provided additional information on the construction progress taking place at the site of their planned LNG export project in Louisiana
The company has begun placing the liquefaction modules, power generation facilities, and concrete foundations
The facility will use two on-site 720 MW combined cycle gas plants for power generation
Phase one of the facility is expected to be operational in 2024, with a capacity 1.75 Bcf/d

[Fraser921]

Another good week for energy. The XLE closed at a level last seen 6 months ago.
The talking heads are talking about energy more. Giddy up.
Ive been buying some of the Canadian names, Gear energy is oversold due to dividend cut. Established positions in HMENF which reports soon

On the US side, ESTE, MTDR , OXY, VTLE. MTDR being the largest position.

On the watch list SBOW, CRK, AR, GPOR, CHK, SWN, EQTl, RRC. Im not ready yet on the gassers but things are looking better.

[dan_s]

CLOSING PRICES
> Prompt-Month WTI (Sep 23) was up $0.37 on the day, to settle at $83.19
> Prompt-Month Henry Hub (Sep 23) was up $0.007 on the day, to settle at $2.770