Mizuho Securities' Top Picks 9-24-2023

[dan_s]

U.S. Oil & Gas Valuation and Chart Handbook - September 24, 2023

Summary
Weekly Valuation and Chart Handbook for the U.S. Oil & Gas sector. This
collection of tables and charts summarizes key valuation metrics for our coverage
of 38 stocks (2 IOCs, 6 Refiners and 30 E&Ps) at both the MSUSA price deck
and Nymex. We also summarize key market indicator trends for both upstream
and refining (page 17), as well as weekly U.S. oil and gas supply-demand trends
(page 43). All data in this report was updated intraday of 9/22/23.

TOP PICKS: CTRA, EOG, PXD

Other BUYs: AR, CPE, DVN, EOG, EQT, MTDR, OVV, PR, RRC, SM

Mizuho's valuations are based on $70/bbl WTI and $3.75/MMBtu natural gas. I was surprised to see CTRA as one of three Top Picks. They list it as the cheapest stock based on $/boe.

Send me an email ( dmsteffens@comcast.net ) if you want to see the full 59-page report.

[Fraser921]

Here is the Mizuho analyst, 5 days ago

Robert Yawger, energy futures strategist at Mizuho Americas, says the level of oil in the vast storage drums in Cushing, Oklahoma, has dropped so far that problems could emerge in extracting more crude. It points to a relentlessly tight U.S. market, he says.


Cost money to store oil, plus curve is backwardated, no incentive to store.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iCs1gQGjAtA

[Cliff_N]

Quote: "If gas get to $4 dollars a gallon, we will begin to see demand destruction." I have heard this for several years now. Do these folks realize how far out of balance supply and demand is for oil? China is in a down period and demand is still an issue. Amazing. Bidumnbomics has killed our ability to produce.

[dan_s]

IMO $4.00 gasoline will not reduce demand. Consumers will bitch about the price, but not change driving habits.