Lots of Fear Based trading yesterday

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dan_s
Posts: 37266
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

Lots of Fear Based trading yesterday

Post by dan_s »

Don't base your trading on fear.
> WTI trading down to $88/bbl is not a "crash". During the first half of this year, WTI averaged less than $75/bbl and the Sweet 16 were all profitable AND they generated a lot of operating cash flow.
> Learn to use the forecast models on the EPG website. They are macro-driven Excel spreadsheet that you can download to your computer, change the oil and gas price assumptions at the bottom and they automatically update revenue, net income, operating cashflow and stock valuations.
> Do your homework. Learn the production mix of the companies you invest in. See if they have a hedging program to reduce commodity price risk.
> All of the companies in our three model portfolios survived an extended of WTI under $50. Their balance sheets are in much better shape today than they were pre-pandemic.

Best of all, when there are Fear Based Selloffs like we saw yesterday, lots of good companies are "On Sale".

WTI is up this morning and so is HH natural gas. OPEC+ will make some news tomorrow that should push oil back over $90. Saudi Arabia controls the oil price, not Joe Biden.

I will have more comments on today's webinar that starts at 11AM CT.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Fraser921
Posts: 3240
Joined: Mon Mar 22, 2021 11:48 am

Re: Lots of Fear Based trading yesterday

Post by Fraser921 »

I like bargains!!
mitchl
Posts: 120
Joined: Tue Aug 15, 2023 10:24 pm

Re: Lots of Fear Based trading yesterday

Post by mitchl »

I do too. Buy fear and sell greed!
dan_s
Posts: 37266
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

Re: Lots of Fear Based trading yesterday

Post by dan_s »

Now your learning something!
FEAR and GREED are two powerful emotions.

I will update my InPlay forecast model this afternoon. The numbers are "stunning" at $90WTI.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
tlengoc
Posts: 79
Joined: Thu Feb 23, 2023 1:38 pm

Re: Lots of Fear Based trading yesterday

Post by tlengoc »

Fraser921 wrote: Tue Oct 03, 2023 12:11 pm I like bargains!!
The uglier the better!!!
Lbark
Posts: 146
Joined: Fri Jul 07, 2023 5:46 pm

Re: Lots of Fear Based trading yesterday

Post by Lbark »

based on the continued selloffs which are your favorite companies to buy or add to now? Are you waiting until tomorrow's OPEC meeting? thanks.
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