NG under 3

[Fraser921]

NG under 3 For December and March, polar vortex needed NOW! Normal temps HDD last half of Nov.

The EIA announced that storage rose by +60 BCF, an ugly 40 BCF bearish versus the 5-year average and a disappointing 13 BCF larger than my projection. The build was even larger compared to the analyst consensus which was generally in the +40-45 BCF range. With the withdrawal and injection, natural gas inventories rose to 2833 BCF through November 10 while the surplus versus the 5-year average widened back to +203 BCF. The year-over-year surplus stands at +198 BCF.

Celsius energy says

"I feel that for natural gas to truly break out, the most important thing will be for production growth to flatten and, ideally, drop back towards 102-103 BCF/day from its current 105+ BCF/day record highs"

I don't know why producers can't manage production better. All they need to do is dial production back 2 %

For next week release, (thru Friday this week) Celsius says

For the full storage week of November 11-17, I am projecting a +15 BCF injection, an exceptional 67 BCF bearish versus the 5-year average and 74 BCF larger than last year. It would be the single largest injection in the last 5 years—and one of only 2 years, along with 2020’s +3 BCF, that saw injections. In contrast, 2018 registered an impressive -123 BCF withdrawal amidst an early-season arctic outbreak. This will increase the y-o-y surplus from +198 to +272!!

[Cliff_N]

Frazier, when you look at the 1 year chart on NG what do you see? Statistical thinking is a good skill when making statements of "prediction." NG bottomed out in about May. Since has been slightly rising. Certainly there will be short rises and dips. I have never found reacting to "trends of one" useful. Dan's forecast of an average price is probably in line with what will happen in the future. Of course, if data shows up that indicates the theory is not longer useful, then a Bayesian moment may be required. Without considering the longer view of the chart, you end up like a paper trader with hair on fire yelling squirrel.

[Cliff_N]

Attached is a Run Chart with Median, also the statistical signals to interpret. The median in the 2nd phase is $2.60, NG crossed that on September 10th. For a signal to trigger, you need six points, we have over 40 days. A day below $2.60 would break this shift.

[allen46]

Fraser, no company wants to be the one to cut production while everyone else takes advantage of the reduction. Plus any "collusion" to reduce production would get them in serious trouble with the Biden administration.

[ChuckGeb]

I think the mid year cut in rig counts is yet to fully show up in reported production and storage. If the gassers are really smart they would be drilling some DUC’s while tubular and other capex items have eased a bit. They will hopefully need every molecule of production this time next year and possibly sooner if the new LNG plants meet their anticipated startup projections.

[ChuckGeb]

Better call Jerry.

Chevron Corporation (CVX) is in the initial stages of evaluating alternatives for approximately 70,000 net acres of land in East Texas' Haynesville shale formation, following a temporary development pause earlier this year, per a Reuters report.

Per the report, a full sale of the assets is among considerations as the energy giant aims to divest up to $15 billion in assets over the next five years. The decision to explore options for the Haynesville shale assets follows Chevron's recent substantial $53 billion acquisitionof Hess Corporation HES.

Chevron's focus on divestments is part of a broader effort to enhance its financial flexibility and concentrate on high-value, high-return assets. The Haynesville assets, if sold, are anticipated to attract significant interest due to their proximity to existing and planned liquefied natural gas export projects along the U.S. Gulf Coast.

While there’s a possibility of a full sale, Chevron may also explore partnerships with other producers in the region for joint development. Bankers and industry insiders estimate the value of the Haynesville assets to be in the low hundreds of millions of dollars. Chevron, which temporarily halted development activities in July as part of its routine business planning, produces around 40 million cubic feet equivalent per day of natural gas from a portion of the Haynesville holdings.