Ng is getting pummeled

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Fraser921
Posts: 3240
Joined: Mon Mar 22, 2021 11:48 am

Ng is getting pummeled

Post by Fraser921 »

Jan ng 2.43 down 14 cents in overnight trading
I posed the question last week, can we see a 1 dollar handle in NG. Will a buck wake these guys up?

The market is punishing the oversupply and the unwillingness to cut production

When you a stack one positive assumption after the other , you set yourself up for disaster.

Crk is borrowing money for cap ex and dividend. Both will be eventually have to be cut.

The market is praying for a 100 year polar vortex and freeze off. It’s almost 60 here in Boston!

Good news, JJ is happy as the cowboys won
Fraser921
Posts: 3240
Joined: Mon Mar 22, 2021 11:48 am

Re: Ng is getting pummeled

Post by Fraser921 »

Front months down over 10 %. , weeeeeee. Next 11 out of 12 months below 3

March and April at 2.11 Just another 12 cents for a 1 handle

pummeled may too soft of a word. take your pick, Crushed, implosion, soft landing , algo's

Warm weather and over production.

Pretty expensive 5 BCF over production

But yeah, everything is fine, rah rah sis boom bah
Fraser921
Posts: 3240
Joined: Mon Mar 22, 2021 11:48 am

Re: Ng is getting pummeled- aegis comments

Post by Fraser921 »

https://aegis-hedging.com/insights/natural-gas-production-surges-to-all-time-high?utm_campaign=AEGIS%20First%2FLast%20Market%20Looks%20%26%20Alerts&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=285991105&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-9omRJmC-nMHFUDHfSg3_JV3fcOCDziv_GaT8FdqGP_NhULvRpKcS5CmSfQOMo4relxsGEfEmAXEbesqEaI3pv5_PEVaw&utm_content=285991105&utm_source=hs_email


During this period, the December Henry Hub contract began a decline of more than 90c, falling from $3.66/MMBtu to $2.70/MMBtu, likely driven by a combination of higher supply and average weather-driven demand.
Fraser921
Posts: 3240
Joined: Mon Mar 22, 2021 11:48 am

Re: Ng is getting pummeled

Post by Fraser921 »

from aegis

I guess they didnt get the memo that December will be cold ;)


- Lower 48 natural gas production has reached a new all-time high of more than 105 Bcf/d
-Most of the production growth has been from Appalachia and the Permian, but all regions have increased output on average
-Higher supply has likely contributed to the recent price decline in natural gas

ChuckGeb
Posts: 1217
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 2:46 pm

Re: Ng is getting pummeled

Post by ChuckGeb »

Fraser my sense is as the Permian wells are getting gassier that the majority of the increase is coming from there as a byproduct of oil production. I don’t see how Appalachia could increase much with lack of pipeline takeaway. Too bad they can’t run any pipes to the Boston area.
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