Sweet 16 Update

[dan_s]

Updated spreadsheets have been posted under the Sweet 16 Tab showing my Fair Value Estimate and the current First Call Target Price for each stock in the portfolio. The Excel spreadsheet shows my current EPS and CFPS forecast for each company. The portfolio is heavily weighted to oil, so solid results are coming.

The Sweet 16, as a group, has been trading in lockstep with the S&P 500 Index. Our Canadian based companies (that were hammered last year) are leading the pack. Not surprising since they were grossly oversold last year.
> TGA up 68.0% YTD
> GTE up 32.3% YTD (see news last week of a major discovery well in Columbia)
From last year's Sweet 16:
> PetroBank (PBEGF) up 42.2% YTD
> Petrominerales (PMGLF) up 13.3% YTD
All 4 are still well below my Fair Value estimates

Three that look very cheap to me (all heavily weighted to oil) are GPOR, EOG and WLL. All are down YTD.

I am expecting rock solid 1st quarter results from each company in the portfolio, including the seven that were dropped back to the Watch List. I'm very eager to see Q1 results from our Eagle Ford companies (EOG, ROSE, CRZO, GEOI).
You should read my recent profile on CRZO. This could be a big transition year (from gasser to 80% oil) for Carrizo.