Question for Petroleum Economist

[allen46]

Are Inplay, Vital, Hemisphere and Ovintiv still in your top 10? Thanks so much for sharing your knowledge.

[Petroleum economist]

Allen, I somehow I missed you out on the distribution. I emailed you today the lastest.
If anyone wants to see the full set with an explanation of on what basis the ranking is compiled, then just send me a private message with your email address.

Inplay currently sits at 5, Vital at 4, Hemisphere at 3 and Ovintiv at 10.

See below the top 25 of the ranking as off yesterday:

1. Riley exploration
2. Ring Energy
3. Hemisphere Energy
4, Vital Energy
5. Inplay Oil
6. Whitecap Resources
7. SM Energy
8. Diamondback Energy
9. Silverbow Resources
10. Ovintiv
11. Surge Energy
12. EOG Resources
13. Tourmaline
14. Civitas
15. Crescent Energy
16. Chord
17. Tamarack Valley
18. Sandridge Energy
19. Matador Resources
20. Petrus Resources
21. Cenovus
22. Murphy Oil
23. Viper Energy
24. ARC Resources
25. Gulfport Energy

[marc.wolin@yahoo.com]

Please Give Me Your Thoughts on REPX

What comprises your #1 rating? Pros and Cons?.

Thank you.

Marc Wolin

[Petroleum economist]

Mark, it is not so easy explained on a web page. I send you the ranking model presentation by email. Have a look.

Riley in short:
- Reserves: Ample reserves at 13.5 years 2024 production. Industry is only 9.5-10 years
- RRR: great RRR - 1.59 over period 2019-2023. Industry average only 1.02
- Balance sheet: Rapidly restoring after Pecos Acquistion. Solvency and debt/EBITDA ratio at acceptable levels in late 2024 and further improving in 2025/2026
- Profitability: Medium /low unit costs $ 31.40/BoE
- Production: Growing from 21K BoE/d to 30 K BoE/d.
- Low PE in 2024-2026 period: 3.9-3.0
- Shareholder returns: short term decent 5.4%, later higher

The total package, in the way I combine them is better than all the other companies that I track.

The presentation will explain it in a better way
If anyone else want to receive the presentation as well, please drop me a private message.

[marc.wolin@yahoo.com]

Thank you,

Marc Wolin

[dan_s]

My updated valuation of REPX is $52.00, which compares to First Call's price target of $48.75.

REPX was trading at $27.27 when this was posted. That share price is just under 2.5 X my operating CFPS forecast for 2024.
TipRanks' 2024 CFPS forecast of $11.62 is actually higher than my forecast of $11.03.

TipRanks's 2025 forecast is EPS of $9.06 and operating CFPS of $13.82.

Riley pays a decent dividend $1.44/year, which is a yield of ~5.3%.

[allen46]

I had a nice position in Riley based on Dan's analysis. Petroleum Economist analysis made me much more comfortable and I doubled down and then tripled down in the last 48 hours as the market gave me a gift in the $26 range. Now REPX, FANG, HMENF and PR are my biggest 4 positions. Also own IPOOF and VTLE. Hope this ends well!