Link to my July 4th Podcast

[dan_s]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L8wvaTTTr9o

My updated forecast/valuation model for Crescent Energy (CRGY) has been posted to the EPG website.

As discussed during the podcast, I now believe that my model is based on conservative assumptions.

The Company's 2024 proforma guidance (as if the merger with SilverBow closed on 1/1/2024) is $2,050 million of EBITDA this year.
My 2025 forecast, based on production of 265,000 Boepd, WTI oil price of $80/bbl, and HH natural gas price of $3.50/MMBtu shows EBITDA of $1,997 million.
Here are some areas where I could be too conservative:
> My model uses 2025 lease operating expense of $8.75/boe. The Company believes they can bring down LOE, which usually is the case when mergers of equals like this take place because their field operations overlap.
> My model adds the two companies' G&A expense together. They are likely to not need a staff as large.
> Interest expense in my 2025 forecast is probably too high. The Company's top priority will be using free cash flow to pay down debt and they say that they can restructure their debt at lower interest rates. Based on my forecast, they should be generating a lot of free cash flow post-merger.

The merger is now expected to close by July 31. Early in August they will provide more detailed guidance, which I will use to fine tune the model.

Crescent Energy will be getting a lot more of the Wall Street Gang's attention after the merger closes.