imho
Update on crk
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4704474-comstock-resources-stock-investing-in-western-haynesville
NG heading for a 1 handle
Re: NG heading for a 1 handle
Celsius is predicting +30
I project that daily natural gas storage injections will flip to bearish and that the storage surplus versus the 5-year average could potentially climb back above +500 BCF in the last few days of the month, as shown in the Figure to the right.
Natural gas prices were also likely adversely impacted on the demand side by feedgas volumes to the Freeport LNG export facility which saw a ninth straight day of shutdown since Hurricane Beryl on Monday, despite power being restored to the plant on Sunday. This has curtailed nearly 20 BCF in feedgas demand. Per today’s early-cycle pipeline data, flows finally show signs of life, rising to 0.4 BCF/day or around 19% capacity, though this remains subject to revision. Should volumes to Freeport quickly ramp back up (finally), this could provide some support to the commodity.
Finally, the quick rally back in June that inexplicably took natural gas prices back over $3/MMBTU appears to have resulted in producers quickly bringing shut-in production back online. After dropping as low as 98 BCF/day in May, output has swiftly recovered back above 102 BCF/day, still down around -4 BCF/day from last year’s record highs but now up around 1-2 BCF/day year-over-year and at all-time highs for this time of year. With prices now tumbling towards $2/MMBTU and below break-even for most producers, it seems investors are trying to knock down prices to force these companies to shut back in some output to tighten up supply/demand imbalances, though we have yet to see any evidence of this actually happening just yet.
I project that daily natural gas storage injections will flip to bearish and that the storage surplus versus the 5-year average could potentially climb back above +500 BCF in the last few days of the month, as shown in the Figure to the right.
Natural gas prices were also likely adversely impacted on the demand side by feedgas volumes to the Freeport LNG export facility which saw a ninth straight day of shutdown since Hurricane Beryl on Monday, despite power being restored to the plant on Sunday. This has curtailed nearly 20 BCF in feedgas demand. Per today’s early-cycle pipeline data, flows finally show signs of life, rising to 0.4 BCF/day or around 19% capacity, though this remains subject to revision. Should volumes to Freeport quickly ramp back up (finally), this could provide some support to the commodity.
Finally, the quick rally back in June that inexplicably took natural gas prices back over $3/MMBTU appears to have resulted in producers quickly bringing shut-in production back online. After dropping as low as 98 BCF/day in May, output has swiftly recovered back above 102 BCF/day, still down around -4 BCF/day from last year’s record highs but now up around 1-2 BCF/day year-over-year and at all-time highs for this time of year. With prices now tumbling towards $2/MMBTU and below break-even for most producers, it seems investors are trying to knock down prices to force these companies to shut back in some output to tighten up supply/demand imbalances, though we have yet to see any evidence of this actually happening just yet.