I think we can use that word today.
Do the models and calculated target price ever assume bad things happening, ie market risk?
Carnage
Re: Carnage
Election is three months away, more tension in the middle east, AI is losing some of its steam, fear of recession is back already.
It may be an alright time to add to some uranium positions. Nuclear energy is less associated with economic activity than oil and more with baseload power. However, the uranium stocks are beaten down with everything else.
It may be an alright time to add to some uranium positions. Nuclear energy is less associated with economic activity than oil and more with baseload power. However, the uranium stocks are beaten down with everything else.
Re: Carnage
I do have increased cushions in my forecast models for prolonged oil & gas prices.
All of the forecast models are macro driven Excel spreadsheets. You can download them to Excel on your computer and change the production volumes and commodity price assumptions at the bottom. The forecast will automatically update revenues, net income, operating cash flow and stock valuation for you.
Note that I do adjust for each company's hedges.
All of the forecast models are macro driven Excel spreadsheets. You can download them to Excel on your computer and change the production volumes and commodity price assumptions at the bottom. The forecast will automatically update revenues, net income, operating cash flow and stock valuation for you.
Note that I do adjust for each company's hedges.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Carnage
Note from HFI Research Monday afternoon.
“There are decades where nothing happens, and there are weeks where decades happen.” ~ Vladimir Ilyich Lenin
As the global crowded trades unwind, all correlations go to 1. But during times of turmoil, specialists can find pockets of opportunity that the generalists are unaware of. In the energy space, we are seeing those pockets of value now. There's a big disconnect between fundamentals and price, and we think over the coming weeks, this disconnect will correct itself.
For the first time in a very long time, both our oil and natural gas market signals have turned bullish.
Because of these indicators flashing bullish, we have decided to go long crude and natural gas, as we signaled to subscribers last week. We have expressed this trade in the form of long UCO and BOIL. The trades are intended to take advantage of the temporary disconnect we see in the market, so please do not expect us to hold these positions for long.
From a larger picture perspective, I think what we are seeing in the market today is the beginning of the end. While history tells us that major sell-off events like the one we are seeing today never fall in a straight line down to the abyss, it does signal that a turn is coming, and we should be prepared for what's next.
------------------------------
IN MY OPINION: It will take a MAJOR RECESSION to significantly lower oil demand AND OPEC will defend the oil price. Demand for oil-based products does exceed supply today and will do so through September at least. U.S. and OECD Petroleum inventories should continue to decline.
The U.S. natural gas market is much different than the global oil market. Today we have a "perceived surplus" of natural gas in U.S. storage, but since mid-April the weekly gas storage builds have been significantly below the 5-year average 13 of 14 weeks. The surplus to the 5-year average of gas in storage has declined by 216 Bcf during the last 14 weeks. Plus, U.S. gassers will have 3.3 Bcfpd more access to international gas markets in a few months with three more LNG export facilities soon to come online. Natural gas prices are $11.76/MMBtu in Europe and $12.52/MMBtu in Asia.
Is this market "correction" the bursting of the AI/tech bubble or a MAJOR RECESSION?
“There are decades where nothing happens, and there are weeks where decades happen.” ~ Vladimir Ilyich Lenin
As the global crowded trades unwind, all correlations go to 1. But during times of turmoil, specialists can find pockets of opportunity that the generalists are unaware of. In the energy space, we are seeing those pockets of value now. There's a big disconnect between fundamentals and price, and we think over the coming weeks, this disconnect will correct itself.
For the first time in a very long time, both our oil and natural gas market signals have turned bullish.
Because of these indicators flashing bullish, we have decided to go long crude and natural gas, as we signaled to subscribers last week. We have expressed this trade in the form of long UCO and BOIL. The trades are intended to take advantage of the temporary disconnect we see in the market, so please do not expect us to hold these positions for long.
From a larger picture perspective, I think what we are seeing in the market today is the beginning of the end. While history tells us that major sell-off events like the one we are seeing today never fall in a straight line down to the abyss, it does signal that a turn is coming, and we should be prepared for what's next.
------------------------------
IN MY OPINION: It will take a MAJOR RECESSION to significantly lower oil demand AND OPEC will defend the oil price. Demand for oil-based products does exceed supply today and will do so through September at least. U.S. and OECD Petroleum inventories should continue to decline.
The U.S. natural gas market is much different than the global oil market. Today we have a "perceived surplus" of natural gas in U.S. storage, but since mid-April the weekly gas storage builds have been significantly below the 5-year average 13 of 14 weeks. The surplus to the 5-year average of gas in storage has declined by 216 Bcf during the last 14 weeks. Plus, U.S. gassers will have 3.3 Bcfpd more access to international gas markets in a few months with three more LNG export facilities soon to come online. Natural gas prices are $11.76/MMBtu in Europe and $12.52/MMBtu in Asia.
Is this market "correction" the bursting of the AI/tech bubble or a MAJOR RECESSION?
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group