EIA Natural Gas Storage Report - Aug 22

[dan_s]

Working gas in storage was 3,299 Bcf as of Friday, August 16, 2024, according to EIA estimates.
This represents a net increase of 35 Bcf from the previous week. < 13 Bcf below the 5-year average for this week.
Stocks were 221 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 369 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,930 Bcf.
At 3,299 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.

Since April 19th (17 weeks) the surplus to the 5-year average has decreased by 303 Bcf.

Total U.S. natural gas storage capacity is ~4,200 Bcf. The highest storage level heading in the winter (mid-November) was 3,958 Bcf on 11-13-2020, thanks in part to the pandemic, which reduced demand.

There are 12 weeks remaining in the refill season. The average build over the last 12 weeks of the refill season is 744 Bcf. 3,299 + 744 = 4,043 Bcf, so if the next 12 weeks builds are "average", gas in storage would be an all-time high heading into winter.

Weekly builds have been lower than the 5-year average for 16 of the last 17 weeks (an average of 17.8 Bcf below the 5-yr ave) and that trend is expected to continue, so my WAG is that gas in storage will be ~3,850 Bcf mid-November.

Storage capacity cannot and will not overfill. Upstream companies are delaying well completions now and they will shut-in wells if necessary.

Also, keep in mind that demand for U.S. natural gas is much higher than it was five years ago and LNG export will be much higher this coming winter.

[Petroleum economist]

A fill in this time of the year is very normal.

[dan_s]

More natural gas storage facilities are being built because if you look at gas in storage on Days of Consumption it is below the 5-year average.

Update from Antero Resources:
> New Fortress Altimira floating facility (FLNG) in now on line.
> Venture Global's big new LNG export facility at Plaquemines, Louisiana is "Targeting a September, 2024" startup. < Over 2 Bcfpd day.
> Cheniere's Corpus Train 3 is expected to startup mid-Q4 2024.
> Total year-over-year LNG export capacity increases from 14.5 Bcfpd at end of 2023 to 17.8 Bcfpd (+3.3 Bcfpd) at end of 2024.

> Exxon's Golden Pass Trains 1 and 2 are now scheduled for Q4 2025. < Adds 1.8 Bcfpd more export capacity.
> More pipeline capacity to Mexico should increase export capacity another 1.2 Bcfpd in 2025.