EIA September Short Term Energy Outlook updated Sept 10

[dan_s]

Read full report here: https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/

Per EIA:

Crude oil prices. Despite a drop in the Brent crude oil spot price to $73 per barrel (b) on September 6, we expect ongoing withdrawals from global oil inventories will push prices back above $80/b this month.
> More oil will be taken out of inventories in the fourth quarter of 2024 (4Q24) that we previously expected because OPEC+ announced that they will delay production increases until December. Those increases had been set to start in October.
> Although market concerns over economic and oil demand growth, particularly in China, have increased, causing oil prices to fall, OPEC+ production cuts mean less oil is being produced globally than is being consumed. We expect the Brent crude oil spot price to average $82/b in 4Q24 and average $84/b in 2025.

Natural gas prices. We forecast natural gas prices will remain relatively flat in the upcoming shoulder season during September and October before generally rising in 2025.
> Price increases in 2025 reflect U.S. natural gas production that does not keep pace with growth in U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports.
> We expect the Henry Hub spot price will rise from less than $2.00 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in August to around $3.10/MMBtu next year.

Electricity generation. A hot start to the summer has contributed to rising electricity demand this year, which is spurring more electricity generation. We expect that U.S. electricity generators will produce 3% more electric power this year than they did in 2023. Most of this increase in generation is coming from solar power, but a significant amount is also coming from natural gas.