The International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Thursday that global oil demand growth has markedly decelerated and is set for just 900,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2024 due to rapidly slowing Chinese consumption. The Agency cut its growth estimate by 70,000 bpd from last month’s assessment.
Global oil demand growth in the first half of 2024 was only 800,000 bpd year-on-year, the lowest pace of growth since 2020, the IEA said in its closely-watched Oil Market Report out today.
The main driver of the sluggish growth has been “a rapidly slowing China,” where oil consumption contracted on an annual basis for a fourth straight month in July, by 280,000 bpd, the Paris-based agency said.
IEA cuts demand
Re: IEA cuts demand
Based on the chart they provided for 1Q23 - 4Q25, doesn't it appear that China's demand was extremely high in 2Q23 and then tapered down over the next 3 quarters. If I recall correctly, didn't China take advantage of Russia's lower oil price during the sanctions, and bought more than average last year and put into storage?
If so, then are we just seeing a return to a more normal demand growth? China's negative demand growth in 2Q24 and 3Q24 could be due to economic conditions in China. But it could also be explained by China drawing from their storage.
Access to more historical data could help to either confirm that China's demand in 2023 was more an anomaly than part of their long-term demand growth.
If so, then are we just seeing a return to a more normal demand growth? China's negative demand growth in 2Q24 and 3Q24 could be due to economic conditions in China. But it could also be explained by China drawing from their storage.
Access to more historical data could help to either confirm that China's demand in 2023 was more an anomaly than part of their long-term demand growth.
Re: IEA cuts demand
Keep in mind that IEA has a long history of under-estimating oil demand.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group