Jeff Currie: "We are entering a commodities supercycle"

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Jeff Currie, chief strategy officer of energy pathways at Carlyle

Gold, Oil, and Copper Prices Are Set to Rise, This Energy Analyst Says. What’s Driving Demand Now.
Carlyle’s Jeff Currie shares his take on how various market forces have pushed commodities into a new “supercycle.”

Jeff Currie has been charting the path of commodities for decades, scouring the globe for clues to where oil, coal, copper, and gold prices might be headed next. Currie spent 27 years at Goldman Sachs, eventually becoming the head of global commodities research. His correct predictions about China’s rise in the early 2000s and the U.S. shale boom in the 2010s have shaped the investment conversation around commodities for years.

This year, Currie was named the chief strategy officer for energy pathways at Carlyle, analyzing commodity markets and investment ideas for the private-equity firm’s infrastructure and energy teams.

Currie recently spoke with Barron’s about the markets’ latest moves, and why he’s more convinced than ever that commodities have entered a new “supercycle” that will lift copper, gold, and oil prices.

An edited version of the conversation follows.

Barron’s: The stock market and the commodities market have had a wild ride lately, almost suggesting that something fundamental has shifted. What is your read on the situation?

Jeff Currie: The most significant development is that we have likely seen a turn in the U.S. interest-rate cycle for the first time since 2019.
It looks like the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September. What kinds of commodities assets should benefit most?

The most interest-rate-sensitive sectors, which include green energy and copper.

Green energy? Those stocks have been poor performers for the past two years. Is it time to give them another look?

Absolutely. Clean energy is one of the most rate-sensitive sectors in the global economy. The peak in clean energy occurred when rates were at 0%. Since rates have moved up, the pendulum has swung back toward traditional energy. If you think the Fed is going to start cutting rates, it will swing back toward clean energy again, so you’d want to be a buyer of clean energy here. The clean energy sector looks attractive today.

What kinds of opportunities should investors consider?

The difference in investing in this cycle versus previous cycles is that the focus needs to be on a larger ecosystem, including things like batteries and combined-cycle natural-gas turbines, to be able to create a reliable energy system. I call it a reliability premium. Basically, you want storage in your system, like batteries, so the system becomes more functionally like fossil fuels.

Where does copper fit in?

Copper and green energy are connected because so much copper is used in batteries and electric vehicles.
Copper is involved in all the key investment themes facing the world today. It embodies the demand around green spending, data centers, and deglobalization.