EIA Natural Gas Storage Report - Sept 19

[dan_s]

Working gas in storage was 3,445 Bcf as of Friday, September 13, 2024, according to EIA estimates.
This represents a net increase of 58 Bcf from the previous week. < Compares to 5-year average build of 80 Bcf.
Stocks were 194 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 274 Bcf above the five-year average of 3,171 Bcf.
At 3,445 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.

In the last 21 weeks (since April 19) storage builds have been lower than the 5-year average 20 of the 21 weeks.
During that time, the surplus to the 5-year has been reduced by 421 Bcf; from 695 Bcf to 274 Bcf.

My WAG is now that NGas storage will be ~75 Bcf above the 5-year average when the refill season officially ends on November 15 and storage will move to deficit to the 5-year average by sometime in December.

An early winter storm moving across the Northeast U.S. the week of Thanksgiving would be a nice present for the gassers.

NYMEX Strip for HH natural gas
NOV24 > $2.60
DEC24 > $3.05
JAN25 > $3.33
JAN26 > $4.10

[dan_s]

When this LNG export facility comes online, U.S. natural gas prices will move over $3.00 within a few weeks.
https://venturegloballng.com/project-plaquemines/

It was expected to start loading gas by the end of September, but I have not seen an update recently.

[Petroleum economist]

The 10 million LNG ton/year Plaquemines LNG plant, at full capacity, will consume about 1.3 bcf per day, 9.1 bcf/week and 455 bcf/year. The new LNG demand comes on top of the normal demand and thus will impact the gas fill and draw rates with are normally in the range of 0-100 bcf/week (see chart below).

Due to low gas prices, various US companies in mid-2024 have delayed turning in line new gas wells. Once new demand is reported, the supply will return to normal levels. Companies with reduced gas production include EQT (1.0 bcf/d), Chesapeake (0.4-0.5 bcf/d), and Range Resources (quantity unknown). In Canada Tourmaline Oil, Advantage, Crew Energy and Kelt Exploration also reduced summer gas production.

The net effect of the start of the Plaquemines LNG plant will be offset by this additional gas supply and the 170 bcf surplus gas from storage. The net effect in 2024 will be limited.

Only once more LNG plants come on stream, such as Corpus Christi LNG Stage III (late 2024) and Golden Pass LNG (2025), the balance between suppy land demand will shift.

Gas prices in 2024 should stay flat and can pick up in 2025.

[dan_s]

In my opinion, it is misleading to compare natural gas in storage to the 5-year average because demand for U.S. natural gas is much higher today than it was 5 years ago. Measured on Days of Demand the gas in storage today is below the 5-year average.

Global demand for natural gas is going up much faster than global demand for oil because it is the "Clean Fossil Fuel".