Oil Price Forecast - Oct 4

[dan_s]

On September 26th HFI Research sent out a note that said: "I think we get another pullback to $67.50 area (WTI) and the market will want to see that hold. If it holds, then we will attempt the $71 to $73 region again. If that breaks, then we test $75 to $77.

Today $71 and $73 are stronger support levels. If WTI closes over $75 today, that puts it within the $75 to $85 that goes all the way back to mid-2022.

Geopolitical risk to oil supply is definitely HIGH and a lot of hedge funds still hold short positions in WTI that need to be covered.

Settlement of the Longshoreman's strike should also support oil prices since it brings back demand for the diesel that ships run on. I'm glad the workers got a raise, but it will fuel inflation. That might hurt the overall stock market, which wants several more interest rate cuts from the Fed.

WTI oil and HH natural gas prices used in all of my forecast models:
> Q3 2024: $75.00 and $2.15
> Q4 2024: $70.00 and $2.75
> Yr 2025: $75.00 and $3.50 < If we have a normal winter 2H 2025 gas prices should go much higher.