Iran Update

[dan_s]

Note from someone who knows a lot more about Iran than I do:

"We decided to write about Iran since it has been in the news since yesterday after many news reports talked about the US and Israel hitting oil infrastructure in Iran. Oil prices have been increasing since yesterday after President Biden responded to a question from a journalist indicating that hitting oil targets is under discussion. Brent at the time of this writing was above $78/b. Reports also talked about Iran hitting the facilities of neighboring countries and the gas fields of Israel.

Figure (1) above shows Iran’s weekly crude oil exports since the beginning of 2013. It shows how Iran’s oil exports increased substantially between 2015 and 2018 after President Obama signed the JCPOA deal with Iran. Then they declined after President Trump ended the deal and reimposed sanctions on Iran. They recovered strongly since President Biden came to office. As the Figure shows, two weeks ago, Iran’s weekly exports hit a record high of 3.87 mb/d!" < Over $8.5US Billion per month to Iran. This is what is funding Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthi in Yemen.

Bottomline: Joe Biden's presidency is what has funded Iran's war against Israel.

[ChuckGeb]

His Green New De al also made China the number one car manufacturer in the world with an emphasis on electric cars.

[ChuckGeb]

"The idea of Israel now attacking Iran's oil assets is something we see as a zero probability. The ill will it would engender by turning something into a... really, a global problem, we think, is the reason it's got such an infinitesimally small, or what I would say is a zero-probability occurrence." -Mike Rothman, Cornerstone Analytics

[dan_s]

Unless Israel wants Trump to win. I am sure don't see Biden and the Democrats as strong supporters of Israel.
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In yesterday’s Daily Energy Report we stated:

“The idea that Israel will hit Iranian oil export facilities has been circulating in the last two days. We have received several questions from clients and readers about the possibility of Israel hitting the Kharj Island and other oil export facilities.

Our view is that the last thing Israel wants is to anger its friends and those who are neutral in the conflict by hitting Iran’s export facilities, which would raise oil prices. Israel might hit local refineries to inflect damage on the regime and its economy, but not export facilities.

The claim that OPEC+ could cushion Iran’s oil shock as presented by the media and some analysts is misleading: It would take time to compensate for any loss in Iranian oil exports, probably up to 4-6 weeks. This is a critical period before US election! Therefore, we will be surprised if Israel hits Iranian oil exports facilities before the US elections.” < Unless they want Trump to win.

[aja57]

Looks like Kharg Island could be on the table..
https://abcnews.go.com/amp/Politics/israel-us-election-poll-trump-harris-vote-preference/story?id=114474257

[aja57]

No activity at Kharg Island.
https://x.com/anasalhajji/status/1843077170647978300

[mrbill]

Thanks to Jimmy Carter for empowering this murderous regime for 40 years. Topple it and the World will be a better place.