EIA Natural Gas Storage Report - Oct 10

[dan_s]

Working gas in storage was 3,629 Bcf as of Friday, October 4, 2024, according to EIA estimates.
This represents a net increase of 82 Bcf from the previous week. < 14 Bcf lower than the 5-year average, but larger than expected.
Stocks were 124 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 176 Bcf above the five-year average of 3,453 Bcf.
At 3,629 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.

Widespread power outages due to hurricanes lowered demand at natural gas fired power plants in the Southeast U.S. Milder temperatures also lowered demand. Mid-Sept through Mid-Oct are the largest weekly builds each year.

Since April 19 (24 weeks) the storage builds have been much lower than the 5-year average for 23 of the 24 weeks. Reducing the surplus to the 5-year average from 695 Bcf to 176 Bcf (74.7%).

At the end of the refill season (Nov. 15th) gas in storage should be ~3,800 Bcf, which will be ~100 Bcf above the 5-year average. Gas in storage should be a deficit to the 5-year average by year-end. Primary reason is increased demand for LNG exports of over 3 Bcfpd.

DEC24 futures contract now at $3.07/MMBtu. At the end of October, DEC24 will be the front month contact.
JAN25 at $3.32
FEB25 at $3.22
MAR25 at $2.98

Winter weather in Q1 2025 will have a lot to do with where U.S. natural gas prices go next year.