Oil & Gas Prices - Oct 30

[dan_s]

Trading Economics comments before the U.S. markets opened:

WTI crude oil futures rose to around $67.80 per barrel on Wednesday after two consecutive declines, supported by an unexpected drawdown in US stockpiles. API data showed US crude inventories fell by 0.6 million barrels last week, defying expectations of a 2.3 million barrel build. However, a downside bias persists as the easing Middle East war premium shifts focus back to weak fundamentals, including low Chinese demand and ample supply, while traders anticipate OPEC+'s December production plans. Markets are also watching China’s legislative meeting for potential new stimulus measures to boost demand from the top importer. Additionally, traders are closely monitoring US growth and employment data for monetary policy insights ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve decision and the US election. < WTI at $68.26/bbl at the time of this post.

US natural gas futures dropped to near $2.80/MMBtu, mirroring other energy markets as supply concerns eased following Israel’s retaliatory strikes on Iran, which avoided crude and nuclear sites. Additionally, meteorologists forecast warmer-than-normal temperatures across the Lower 48 states through at least November 9, allowing utilities to inject more gas into storage than usual for this time of year. Also, LNG feedgas supply is expected to stay below record levels for the next few weeks due to maintenance at facilities in Louisiana, including Cheniere Energy and Cameron LNG. On the supply front, average natural gas output in 2024 is projected to decline for the first time since 2020. < My forecast model are using $2.75/mcf for average HH natural gas prices in Q4 2024.

[dan_s]

OPEC+ could delay a planned hike in oil production scheduled to take effect in December by a month or more, three sources from the grouping told Reuters on Wednesday, citing concern about soft oil demand and rising supply. Recall, the group volunteering output cuts above and beyond mandated ones was set to bring back 180K bpd per month of that output beginning in December.