Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the week ending October 25, 2024
U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.1 million barrels per day during the week ending October 25, 2024, which was 30 thousand barrels per day less than the previous week’s average.
Refineries operated at 89.1% of their operable capacity last week.
Gasoline production decreased last week, averaging 9.7 million barrels per day.
Distillate fuel production decreased last week, averaging 4.9 million barrels per day.
U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.0 million barrels per day last week, decreased by 456 thousand barrels per day from the previous week. < This is primary reason crude oil inventories declined.
Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 6.0 million barrels per day, 2.2% less than the same four-week period last year.
Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 495 thousand barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 158 thousand barrels per day.
Inventories: Focus on comparison to the 5-year average
> U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 0.5 million barrels from the previous week. At 425.5 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 4% below the five year average for this time of year.
> Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 2.7 million barrels from last week and are about 3% below the five year average for this time of year. Finished gasoline inventories and blending components inventories both decreased last week.
> Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 1.0 million barrels last week and are about 9% below the five year average for this time of year.
> Propane/propylene inventories decreased by 0.2 million barrels from last week and are 11% above the five year average for this time of year.
>> Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 9.5 million barrels last week.
Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 20.9 million barrels a day, up by 2.7% from the same period last year.
Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 9.1 million barrels a day, up by 3.4% from the same period last year.
Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 4.1 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, up by 2.6% from the same period last year.
Jet fuel product supplied was up 2.5% compared with the same four week period last year.
Read this: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Oil-Steady-After-EIA-Confirms-Draw-in-Crude-Gasoline-Inventories.html
EIA Weekly Petroleum Report - Oct 30
EIA Weekly Petroleum Report - Oct 30
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: EIA Weekly Petroleum Report - Oct 30
Note from HFI Research this afternoon.
EIA's oil storage report today was bullish and the lower-than-expected crude build all but verifies one important truth we've been hammering away in recent weeks: US oil production is underperforming.
Historically, US shale oil producers spend most of their capex in the second half of the year. There are many reasons for this, but the two primary ones are 1) better pricing/seasonality and 2) reserve reporting.
As a result, drilling usually picks up in Q3 with production surging into Q4. This is not a surprise to anyone who's been following US shale from the beginning. In Q4 2018, for example, EIA's weekly crude storage reports kept coming in meaningfully higher than our estimates. Most of the difference was attributed to a positive adjustment figure. Two months later when EIA published its EIA 914 report, it was revealed that most of the surprise came from a surge in production.
Luckily this time around, we aren't seeing that. In fact, it's been the exact opposite with EIA showing meaningfully less crude build than our estimates. While we have improved the process materially since then, the delta shouldn't be more than ~6 million bbls.
Looking at our real-time US oil production tracker, US oil production is currently around ~13.2 million b/d or ~100k b/d lower than where it's supposed to be.
This is a good sign and it indicates to me that the likelihood of US oil production surprising to the upside by year-end is low.
But it's not just US oil production that's surprising to the upside, the demand side is also much better than people expected.
EIA's oil storage report today was bullish and the lower-than-expected crude build all but verifies one important truth we've been hammering away in recent weeks: US oil production is underperforming.
Historically, US shale oil producers spend most of their capex in the second half of the year. There are many reasons for this, but the two primary ones are 1) better pricing/seasonality and 2) reserve reporting.
As a result, drilling usually picks up in Q3 with production surging into Q4. This is not a surprise to anyone who's been following US shale from the beginning. In Q4 2018, for example, EIA's weekly crude storage reports kept coming in meaningfully higher than our estimates. Most of the difference was attributed to a positive adjustment figure. Two months later when EIA published its EIA 914 report, it was revealed that most of the surprise came from a surge in production.
Luckily this time around, we aren't seeing that. In fact, it's been the exact opposite with EIA showing meaningfully less crude build than our estimates. While we have improved the process materially since then, the delta shouldn't be more than ~6 million bbls.
Looking at our real-time US oil production tracker, US oil production is currently around ~13.2 million b/d or ~100k b/d lower than where it's supposed to be.
This is a good sign and it indicates to me that the likelihood of US oil production surprising to the upside by year-end is low.
But it's not just US oil production that's surprising to the upside, the demand side is also much better than people expected.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: EIA Weekly Petroleum Report - Oct 30
"Oil demand remains at near 5-year highs, crude inventories (both domestic and global) are well below the 5-year average. At some point, people will sit up and take notice. This week we saw a bullish jobs report, coupled with an even more bullish EIA oil report, which showed a surprise
draw in crude inventories.
Of course, there’s also the leak out of Reuters that suggested OPEC+ was planning on delaying its December output hike. I’ve told you before that if we can count on nothing else, it’s OPEC defending low oil prices and exacting revenge on the IEA for crashing prices by forecasting a peak in oil demand by 2030." - Keith Kohl 10-29-2024
draw in crude inventories.
Of course, there’s also the leak out of Reuters that suggested OPEC+ was planning on delaying its December output hike. I’ve told you before that if we can count on nothing else, it’s OPEC defending low oil prices and exacting revenge on the IEA for crashing prices by forecasting a peak in oil demand by 2030." - Keith Kohl 10-29-2024
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group